A small slice of Central Oklahoma will have a few storms today with a low tornado risk. While wind shear isnt particularly strong, a few ambient boundaries over the state will bring a small risk of tornadoes along with an enhanced threat of hail and damaging winds.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across central and eastern Oklahoma this evening. There is a risk of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph.

Locations:

  • Primary Risk Area: Central and eastern Oklahoma

Threats:

  • Tornadoes: Possible this evening, especially with initial storm development.
  • Large Hail: Very large sizes (2”+), particularly early in the storm lifecycle.
  • Damaging Winds: 60-85 mph, especially as storms grow into an MCS tonight.

Timing:

  • Storm Initiation: Late afternoon/early evening
  • Peak Threat: Evening into tonight

Discussion:

Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley:

  • Setup: A south-southeastward moving MCS is currently along the TX/LA border. Heating ahead of the MCS will lead to strong destabilization. The western flank of the MCS may intensify, drawing on very rich low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates, which will support strong/severe storm potential with damaging gusts and possibly large hail.
  • Storm Development: Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a boundary across north TX into OK. This air mass will modify through the day, with surface dewpoints increasing into the mid-70s across central-southern OK. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop along the edge of this richer moisture by late afternoon/early evening.
  • Severe Potential: Forecast soundings indicate MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Despite nebulous forcing for ascent, a short window may exist for tornadoes if a quasi-discrete mode can be maintained early in the convective lifecycle. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates will support tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially. The threat for damaging winds will increase as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. A 30-percent significant wind area has been added for central/eastern OK due to increased confidence in a severe MCS developing.
  • Additional Threats: Farther north, thunderstorms are forecast to develop across KS this afternoon into early tonight. A weak surface cold front and associated mid-level trough will move southeastward, impacting a very moist/unstable warm sector. Hail and wind will be the primary risks with these storms.