This week probably won’t feature as many destructive tornadoes as last week, which is good news for everyone. However, the risk of tornadoes will continue, with an active subtropical jet giving us plenty of chances of severe storms throughout the week. The biggest threat days are Tuesday and Thursday, with risks every day this week otherwise. Boundaries from the previous day’s activity may limit or enhance days locally at any point this week.


We covered a large part of today in our recent forecast blog. If a storm can go across Texas today, very large hail is likely.


On Tuesday, we anticipate widespread storms, with the most concentrated area over the Southern Plains. This day could potentially see a tornado or two, along with damaging winds and very large hail. The number of storms on this day could warrant an enhanced (3/5) risk.


A storm or two should form off of the higher terrain from Eastern Colorado and NE New Mexico and move onto the adjacent portions of the High Plains with a chance of large hail and a tornado. The most likely scenario on this day is a well-structured supercell that is a beautiful photography subject for the storm-photography-minded person. More violatile storms are possible in Central Texas, in higher instability. 


It will be active on Thursday, with storms forming along a dryline and a stalled boundary with threats from NE Kansas back to the Texas Panhandle. Ample shear mixed with a stronger low-level jet will set the stage for the most significant and most impactful tornado risk of the week. The details are still TBA, but this is the day to watch for the upcoming week.


The wind shear weakens Friday, but this day should essentially repeat Wednesday with perhaps weaker shear but better moisture. I still think a supercell or two is possible on this day. However, the overall threat will be large hail over the open High Plains.


More storms are likely over the following weekend, with a continued large hail and very low tornado risk on the Southern Plains. Flow is weakening rapidly at this point, so the nature of storm coverage and mode are an open question. There is a possibility of boundaries and such affecting each day. So we’ll say the risk continues, but the details are TBA.