Storms will form in an environment characterized by high cloud bases and strong downdraft CAPE today, which will generate near instant cold pools and cell mergers. This will create a linear complex which will march from NE Colorado down to SC Kansas and perhaps even Oklahoma.

Locations:

  • Primary Risk Area: Eastern Colorado and western Kansas
  • Secondary Risk Area: Central/Southern Missouri

Threats:

  •  Very Large Hail: Potential during the first few hours of storm development, especially in the enhanced risk area.
  • Damaging Winds: Widespread damaging winds are expected during the evening as storms move into Kansas.
  • Non-Zero Tornado Risk: A tornado is possible in both risk areas, particularly with initial supercells.

Timing:

  • Storm Initiation: Early afternoon in the High Plains and central/southern Missouri.
  • Peak Threat: Late afternoon to evening.
  • Storm Weakening: After midnight over central Kansas.

Discussion:

CO/KS:

  • Setup: A well-defined mid-level shortwave trough over northern Utah will move eastward, bringing large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture into the High Plains of Colorado.
  • Storm Development: Scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon from southeast Wyoming into the foothills of northern Colorado. These storms will intensify and track east-southeastward along a surface boundary extending into western Kansas.
  • Severe Potential: Initial very high-based supercells will be capable of producing very large hail and damaging winds. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out either, especially early on as storms stretch spin near the surface vertically.Storms are expected to organize into a linear MCS, perhaps rather quickly, with widespread damaging winds during the evening before weakening over central Kansas after midnight.

Central/Southern MO:

  • Setup: A rapidly weakening MCS is currently moving across Arkansas. Rapid moisture return is expected behind this system, with low 70s dewpoints and strong afternoon heating.
  • Storm Development: Scattered afternoon supercell storms are likely, with an axis of convective development expected somewhere in the vicinity of the Ozarks.
  • Severe Potential: These storms will be capable of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes, supported by MLCAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg and faster westerly flow aloft.