If you asked me to draw up what I thought a low-key but active June storm pattern was like on average, I think I’d draw up something similar to this week. Early in the week, NW flow will dominate over the high plains with a building ridge to the south. By late week, a compact low could eject over the High Plains with severe weather chances as well. We should have near-daily, but low, chances of severe weather.

Sfctd_b imp.us_c 10.

Early Week

Moisture will be in place with good upslope flow most of the weekend, with today’s severe risk extending into Kansas and tomorrow’s east into Oklahoma. There may be enough flow to eke out a very high-based supercell today in CO, but flow weakens substantially tomorrow as the risk shifts south. Still, some severe weather is likely on both days.

A compact wave will eject on Monday, which will lead to a risk of severe storms from East New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. There is enough flow to see a supercell or two, perhaps.

Tuesday will need to be watched in East Texas for the possibility of storm development, with the High Plains seeing a drier airmass overall moving in. 

Crossover.us c.

Mid-Late Week

The ridge of high pressure reasserts itself somewhat with weakening flow amidst rising atmospheric heights. This will help dry out the lower levels as the upslope flow regime weakens on the High Plains. Storms will be possible where moisture exists, though, with a low severe weather chance wherever they are expected. The lowlight of the week in terms of the severe risk may be Wednesday, where both flow and instability seem on the low side on the C/S Plains. There will be a risk of severe storms in the Northern Plains, though.

By Friday, predictability is waning as models begin to diverge heavily. But, Friday must be monitored for a more substantial severe weather risk with a compact but robust system ejecting out. Hot and dry conditions will lead to high-based storms congealing into a strong MCS that moves east into higher moisture at the very least, most likely. But it is worth watching Colorado, especially for the possibility of a tornado risk with initial supercells.

Beyond

As the system slides east, there may be a shot at severe storms/supercells on the Plains by next weekend (6/15). Predictability is not high, but we’ll be monitoring.