It’s time to talk about severe weather for the Plains again, with a severe weather risk coming into the region tomorrow afternoon and continuing through the overnight hours.
An upper storm system is approaching from the west and will draw up just enough moisture (dewpoints in the 50s) to give us just enough instability for thunderstorms. With the storm system also increasing atmospheric winds as it approaches, wind shear should also be conducive toward some storm organization.
As it looks right now, storms will form in the afternoon tomorrow and will take a bit to get going. They will move into Western Oklahoma and intensify some, with a couple probably reaching severe levels with large hail being likely. The ‘spinny storms index’ on the HREF actually shows some supercell potential with these, but this is a very low-end severe weather risk no matter how you slice it.
Through the night, as lift increases, more storms will take shape over Texas, with severe weather possible as storms organize into a line. Hail/damaging winds are the main threats.