During the early Spring and Fall, you can get some really wildly huge severe weather risk areas. Today we have a risk stretching from north of Fargo, North Dakota to Abilene, Texas. The risk isn’t even along this stretch though, let’s break it down.
The Enhanced Risk Area and South/West
We’re going to focus our attention on the Enhanced Risk area and to the south/west into the body of Oklahoma. Here, the most favorable environment for severe weather exists today. Big hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible.
Storms will take shape in the late afternoon along the front roughly from Kansas City down to Tulsa. Any storms that form here will be capable of extremely large hail, especially if the storm mode can evolve into a dominant supercell or two.
Tornadoes will be possible around and just after sunset as shear increases, especially with any right-moving dominant supercells. Storm mode is a question here, and there may be too much of a good thing where storms form, with constant interactions lowering the tornado risk.
As time goes on, storms will form into more linear segments with a continued risk of hail and damaging winds — and a tornado or two will remain possible.
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