Scattered strong storms with severe hail and wind are likely across the Northern and Central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated large hail is also possible in southwest Texas.


  • Slight Risk Area: Northern/Central High Plains and Southwest Texas


  • Severe Hail and Wind: Northern/Central High Plains
  • Large Hail: Southwest Texas


  • Storm Initiation: Mid to late afternoon
  • Peak Threat: Late afternoon through late evening
  • Tornadoes: Any tornadoes would be confined to mostly ESE Colorado


Northern/Central High Plains

  • Setup: A mid-level shortwave trough over the Northern Rockies will move eastward, with associated lee troughing expected across the Northern/Central High Plains. Modest low-level moistening (dewpoints potentially in the 50s) will occur along and east of the lee trough. Afternoon temperatures will warm well into the 80s beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, resulting in SBCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition.
  • Storm Development: High-based thunderstorms are expected to form by mid-afternoon near the lee trough and spread eastward through late evening. Some storms may be maintained into the night due to a strengthening low-level jet and warm advection.
  • Severe Potential: Occasional severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) will be the main threats, with primarily multicell clusters and some weak supercell structures possible due to weak-moderate deep-layer shear (effective shear generally 25-30 kt).
  • Tornado Risk: The tornado risk across E/SE Colorado is not zero but it certainly isn’t high either. A storm would need some help via mergers or a merging boundary from other cells to spin up enough most likely.

Southern Plains

  • Setup: Widespread convective overturning has occurred across TX over the past 24 hours, with the remnants of a large MCS now weakening just off the lower TX coast. Lingering low-level moisture and steep lapse rates across the Trans-Pecos could support isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon near the Davis Mountains.
  • Storm Development: MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and sufficiently long hodographs will favor splitting supercells capable of producing isolated large hail, potentially 2 inches in diameter or larger. Marginally severe storm development may occur near the upper TX coast later today with a remnant MCV on the edge of richer low-level moisture.
  • Severe Potential: The southern portion of the central High Plains convection may persist through tonight and grow into a loosely organized MCS from western KS southward into the TX Panhandle and western OK, encountering gradually increasing low-level moisture in a warm advection regime. A few strong gusts and isolated/marginally severe hail may occur with the strongest embedded storms.

Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic

  • Setup: A mid-level trough over OH will move eastward to the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Low-level moisture will be relatively limited in advance of the mid-level trough and a weak surface reflection. However, surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates will contribute to weak SBCAPE of 250-500 J/kg.
  • Storm Development: Scattered, low-topped thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across PA/MD/VA, spreading to the coast this evening.
  • Severe Potential: The steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty outflow winds, but severe/damaging winds appear unlikely given marginal buoyancy and weak low-level flow to limit momentum transfer.