It’s an actual dryline setup on the Southern Plains! But it is admittedly leaving me wanting for a bit more of everything ingredients wise. Still, if storms can go they will pose a severe weather threat with damaging winds (70mph+) and some hail (quarter-size to ping pongs most likely).

A slight risk covers portions of Kansas into SE Nebraska, with a marginal risk surrounding that, stretching all the way down to I-40 in Western Oklahoma. Lower-Mid 50s dewpoints will be common along the dryline in the risk areas. There is also a cold front sagging south in Kansas and Nebraska where some storms will form as well, but given the environment those will generate a cold pool very quickly.
Wind fields aloft are pretty modest during the afternoon hours, which is the most likely time for robust storms due to a strong cap. There is enough here for storm organization, but supercells will take a bit to truly get organized if they do.
The 850mb winds (low-level jet) are pretty weak today along the dryline. Even if there weren’t moisture problems today, this low-level shear would only be on the very low end for tornadoes. We don’t expect any mesocyclone tornadoes today.
The most aggressive model in developing storms today is the NAM in a lot of ways, with storms all the way down to I-40. The KS/NE storms will be outflow driven and kind of junky to be honest (even as a storm enthusiast that’s just what it is). Further south in NW and W Oklahoma, the odds a supercell can take shape are not 0, but it is likely they’d be dealing with capping issues and dry-air entrainment their whole life-cycles.
Even the typically higher dewpoints biased NAM only manages to fire storms in lower 50s to high 40s dews initially. The cloud bases on these storms will be very, very high, and they likely will appear pretty moisture starved (you know it when you see it as a storm chaser). Anytime you see the temperature/dewpoint line only really come together in a small layer, you know dry air is going to wreak havoc on updrafts. Still, the inverted-v sounding and high DCAPE values suggest a robust wind threat with storms initially.
Only because I want to make storm chasers sad (sorry) here is the sounding further south just after peak heating. There is a large LCL/LFC separation which typically requires a lot of upper lift to overcome. However, the environment along the dryline further south is very, very conducive for severe weather. But it will almost certainly go unrealized today.
The low-level wind shear increases markedly near sunset, so if you did have a supercell in NW Oklahoma it would have a chance to sculpt out some by dark. The tornado threat seems very low given the large LCL/LFC spread which would mean any storm that somehow managed to form and stay alive to this point would be the thinning LP barber poles vs. the robust tornado producers.

The Bottom Line

This is a ‘typical’ severe weather day you’ve been through a thousand times if you’ve been around a decade. The damaging winds would be impactful with storms if they happen where people are also, but this is a day that, as a storm chaser, you likely forget exists pretty quickly after it happens. Still, a day on the dryline is better than a day in the office.