Severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of Kansas tomorrow afternoon and evening. Significant damaging gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible.

Locations:

  • Enhanced Risk Area: Western and central Kansas
  • Secondary Risk Area: Dryline down into Oklahoma.

Threats:

  • Large Hail: Particularly during the initial hours of storm development.
  • Damaging Wind Gusts: Likely as storms form clusters and propagate eastward.
  • Tornadoes: A few tornadoes are possible, especially with discrete supercells in the early evening.

Timing:

  • Storm Initiation: Expected during the afternoon.
  • Peak Intensity: Late afternoon through evening.

Meteorological Discussion:

  • Synoptic Setup: A shortwave trough will exit the southeastern U.S. coast while another broad upper-level trough intensifies and digs southward across the western U.S. Shortwave perturbations will move into the Central Plains by early morning and near the Raton Mesa into western Kansas later in the afternoon.
  • Storm Development Regions:
    • Initial convection is expected along the Kansas/Nebraska border into eastern Nebraska, shifting north and east over time.
    • A dryline forecast from southwest Kansas into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma will serve as a focal point for afternoon storm development.
    • Additional development may occur within the Raton Mesa, intensifying as storms encounter greater surface moisture to the east.
  • Storm Modes and Evolution: Supercells are likely initially, capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. As storms move east, they may cluster, leading to a potential for a strong mesoscale convective system (MCS) with significant wind gusts.