Severe storms are forecast to escalate throughout the afternoon across northwest to northern Texas, bringing the potential for very large hail and damaging winds. A stationary front stretches from Shreveport, LA, across the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex towards a weak surface low near San Angelo, TX. This region is characterized by a highly moist and unstable air mass, evidenced by elevated MUCAPE levels around 4000 J/kg and steep midlevel lapse rates from the 12Z FWD sounding.

Already, robust storm cells are up over Young and Archer counties, fueled by the cool, dry surface northeasterlies beneath them. A left-split supercell is currently moving into Stephens County, OK with very large hail as well. As the day progresses and the air along the frontal boundary heats up, deep-layer shear could increase to around 60 kt, enhancing the potential for severe weather. This includes the likelihood of very large hail and damaging winds, especially near the intersection of the dryline and stationary front where storm coverage is expected to intensify.