We’ve talked extensively about the Gulf of Mexico remaining warmer than average over the past few months. And when you talk basic meteorology, we know that warmer temperatures are capable of higher quality moisture.?

Over the past week, the Gulf has cooled thanks to a strong cold front that dove south (bottom image), but you can see the Gulf is still warm for this time of year.

If you look ahead at the upcoming pattern, we will transition from flat/zonal flow across the country to something more amplified to be sure into the middle of the month.

I think that if you can get a slow enough moving trough, we might just see a pretty robust severe weather setup mid-month somewhere from the Plains to the Southeast. But that is far enough out, and models are nowhere near confident in any individual scenario to get too excited or in-depth about.

We’re monitoring it, though.