This continues to be a remarkably stale but productive pattern for severe weather over the Southern High Plains. Today’s axis of storm activity will shift a bit more north and west, but the story remains the same.

Widespread storms will form over the region, a few will be supercells, and with those supercells extremely large hail and a tornado or two will remain possible today.

Modest but sufficient mid-level flow will continue over the region, leading to just enough wind shear for supercells that will move very slowly south and east. A storm chasing dream.
Low-level flow remains backed out of the southeast thanks to lee side troughing in New Mexico/Colorado.
These winds are combining with 50 dews along/east of a dryline to set the stage for an environment favorable for severe weather from Eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains.
Models are pretty insistent on rotating storms today across Eastern New Mexico into the Big Bend Region of Texas.
In fact, as sunset nears, the 0-1km SRH values approach 200 m2/s2 across portions of Eastern New Mexico.

What to Expect

It’s another day where storms will begin forming in the early/mid-afternoon hours and track east and south. Eventually, storms will grow upscale into a line or complex of storms. Before that, supercells will be common with very large hail. Any isolated/robust supercell that can maintain itself to the south and east of any line in Eastern New Mexico will have the chance to produce a tornado today after 6 p.m. local time.

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