But the threat is broader than that…

An enhanced threat of hail and wind exists for the Southern/Central Plains today as well. And it’s the pattern driving the risks we’ve been seeing:

Broad SW flow aloft exists from border to border in the country. This flow, when it overlaps moist and unstable air, sets the stage for severe weather more often than not. While surface temps remain hot and moisture more limited. There’s still enough of everything to provide an atmosphere favorable for severe storms with hail and damaging winds as the primary threats through the rest of this week.

However, as we look ahead into this weekend this flow begins to weaken and turn out of the Northwest. While this isn’t necessarily a storm pattern ender in June, it still tends to limit the overall tornado chances comparatively. Thus, while storm chances will likely continue, we’ll see the chances remain rather modest throughout the period for anything but damaging winds and hail. I could see at least one additional MCS event through this period though, which is right on schedule per the calendar.

By early next week, strong northwest flow will dive south over the Plains and crash a cold front all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. That’ll limit overall storm chances for a couple of days into early next week.

By late next week moisture should recover though, with an expansive dryline from Nebraska to Texas. June isn’t quiet at all in terms of severe weather, just it isn’t a prolific tornado producer…yet.

Overall Threats

Overall, I think the highest threats (outside of the Northern Plains) will remain scattered wind and hail. Last night, we saw 100mph winds at Salina, KS, so that’s not a risk to sleep on. But the tornado risks will remain lower end.

To my eye, there are a few solid chances for severe weather coming up through the rest of this week to continue yesterday’s theme, with the highest tornado chances coming on Friday or Saturday in the Central/Southern Plains. We’ll be out chasing for sure. Hope to see you on our live stream on YouTube!

I’m not sure why they’re all burning their cameras right now, I thought I was excellent.

Anywho, let’s talk weather.

1)The Season is DEAD

That’s right, pick any ensemble you want and the season is truly well done, burnt-toast, dead. It’s over. Pack it up. A giant ridge is parked over the middle of the country and no ensemble weakens it, everything strengthens and amplifies the ridge into June.

While there will be some chances for severe weather on the apex of the ridge up towards the Dakotas, the lack of quality moisture will be hard to overcome for much more than continued sporadic/scattered severe weather chances.

This is why you don’t try to become a professional storm chaser kids, seasons like this one, where weeks of quiet with nothing meaningful to show for tons of work become something that is part tragedy and part warning-story.

Pack it up, it’s over.

2)The Season is ALIVE

Now…despite all of that, the subtle pattern we’ve been in since early this month is persisting. Another low will give a glancing blow to the Plains, sending just enough energy to organize a few severe storms today through at least Saturday.

This is that type of stuff we talked about in the season preview. Mid-level flow will be anemic, heck, all flow is anemic. Moisture is just good enough. The hodograph shape is curved, albeit small. So a supercell or two amidst a lot of multi-cells with an eventual upscale growth into a linear complex seems to be the most likely outcome each day.

This is not late-May tornado outbreak weather to be sure — but it is a steady drumbeat pattern that may persist even into June despite the building ridging. Precip totals for the first 10-15 days of June on most ensembles are truly impressive, which points to an active regime where the ridging does not suppress storm activity completely but it does limit the amount of shear and moisture. So the storm season will continue for the Plains, just it will continue about where it’s been.

3)Catch Us Live

We’ll be out and about a lot of the upcoming days as time permits, the geography makes sense, and the setup is worthy enough. If you haven’t done so, it’s a great day to subscribe to our YouTube channel.

Finally, we’re seeing hints of a ‘bigger’ day out of this pattern, which was expected but uncertain about when. Let’s talk about it.

Today

Today, ingredients are pretty low-end across much of the region, with a bit more oomph in the atmosphere up into KS and Iowa. Still, even there, the main risk today will be hail and damaging winds as moisture isn’t quite where it needs to be, and shear is still lower end.

Further south, moisture is very limited, and the overall risk of severe weather is on the lower end. Hail and damaging winds are the main threats north, with damaging winds the dominant threat further south (but hail is a secondary threat).

Tomorrow

Tomorrow, the ingredients are just a little more favorable across the board on the Plains. In Nebraska, shear and instability will be enough to support a sustained supercell threat — though high-based most likely. Models are pretty insistent that storms will eventually form into a linear complex tomorrow up that way as the cold pools from the high-based cells merge. A low tornado threat, but mainly hail/damaging winds.

Further south, the tornado threat is very low, but hail and damaging winds will be possible with any storms that can get going along a dryline. High-cloud bases are certain down in OK/TX, as is a stronger cap. Historically, I’ve seen some dynamic storms in those environments for sure, but they tend to struggle in terms of tornadoes because the high bases and capping both make sustaining low-level mesocyclones difficult.

Sunday

The big question for me on Sunday is where will storms form?

The most likely area is up in Nebraska again, but moisture is more limited so bases may initially be higher. Still, I could see a supercell, hail, and tornado threat emerging that way into the evening.

Further south on the dryline in KS and OK, the shear and moisture combos tend to suggest a more classic supercell and tornado threat — lower-end due to capping and storm-coverage uncertainty, but present.

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What I think happens is that a few supercells break through the cap in the afternoon hours and persist for 3-5 hours before dissipating into the evening. A classic dryline chase with a small window for a tornado or two and some giant hail.

Monday

By Monday, forcing aloft will increase as will shear and moisture.

I’m not going to mince words: pattern recognition tells me a big risk (and big hype) is coming on Monday from Oklahoma to Nebraska/Iowa.

Overall profiles look extremely favorable for supercells and tornadoes on this day. As with any possible ‘big’ day, the questions I have are the details we can’t see at this range.

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If I can find some time, I’ll write about Monday more in-depth in this newsletter over the weekend, as well as what I’m seeing beyond Monday. But for now, just circle that day, especially bright, as it’ll probably be a day that demands attention.

If you haven’t done so, be sure to subscribe to us on YouTube — we’re debuting TitanTrack this weekend and into next week, and it’ll represent a brand new way to watch live storm chasing streams.

We have always believed that weather is a reality we all share, and that knowledge is the only true defense when the atmosphere turns dangerous. Our number one goal has always been to provide knowledge about severe weather. I’m excited about what we are about to unveil starting this weekend: the ultimate live storm chase platform for those who want to learn in real time about storms as they happen.

Introducing TitanTrack

TitanTrack is a first-of-its-kind atmospheric command center that re-engineers how we experience the sky during a live chase. TitanTrack is a major step forward in scientific communication and the most ambitious broadcast intelligence ever used during a live weather broadcast.

When you sit down to watch a Tornado Titans live stream this season, you will see two layers working together. On top, camera angles wrap around the chase vehicle to deliver a 360-degree tactical vantage point: in every direction the team can look, you can look. Underneath that visual layer, an advanced computational engine narrates the entire day in real time and lets us teach about the storms with live telestration and more.

What TitanTrack actually does

Every single second, TitanTrack recomputes the state of the atmosphere. It tracks dozens of critical parameters from the surface to the stratosphere, fusing high-resolution radar, dual-satellite imagery, geostationary lightning detection, official watches and warnings, and the same mesoanalysis fields professional forecasters use into a single integrated picture.

It then translates that raw, complex data into vital context. Why is this storm rotating? What is the atmospheric environment doing right now that wasn’t true an hour ago? What conditions may begin to materialize over the next thirty minutes if the trend holds? TitanTrack carries thousands of distinct storytelling possibilities on any given chase day, so no two chases ever sound exactly the same.

It also navigates uncertainty the same way any storm chaser might. The system goes quiet when the science is quiet, and it speaks up when something genuinely changes. We are teaching you to filter out the noise and identify the signals that matter most, a valuable skill in a world where information is constantly flowing.

Why this matters

Live storm chase broadcasts have followed roughly the same template for over a decade. A windshield camera. Voices that may or may not be exceptionally loud. A static map in the corner, perhaps. These are fine formats for watching storms as they happen — but we wanted to try something different.

While the tech around the chases has changed, the broadcasts have not. We are delivering a level of atmospheric insight that has quite literally never been attempted in a live broadcast, not because the technology was unavailable, but because nobody had built it. Think of it like a “StatCast” version of storm chasing — if that sounds interesting, this is probably something you’ll really find compelling.

By the end of a season of chases with us, you should know how to read a radar, recognize the setups that produce tornadoes, hear what a meteorologist hears in a forecast, and feel calmer (not more panicked) the next time severe weather shows up in your own forecast. That transformation is the entire point. We aren’t just chasing the storm. We are helping you decode it at the speed of the chase.

That knowledge you learn will spread and create safer communities in the future…we hope.

Out of beta. Into the season.

We have quietly run TitanTrack on six live broadcasts already this 2026 season. It works. So we are done calling it a beta and giving it the introduction it deserves.

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The next time we go live, sit down and watch. By the time you stand up, the next storm coming your way will look a little less mysterious, and you will be a little more ready for it.

That has always been our goal for nearly twenty years. Now our live streams match that promise.

We will see you on the next chase, which should be Saturday!

But, as we’ve been talking about for what feels like forever, that pattern is short-lived as we’re in a transition to what will become the dominant pattern through late May and much of June. And if you are a severe weather chaser like me, it looks busy.

1. Current Situation

Currently a large ridge of high pressure is sitting over my house here in New Mexico right now.

This won’t last forever though, as this high weakens and shifts south over the next few days, allowing modest flow to arrive over pretty meager moisture by late this week.

By the weekend, a trough will be entering the picture to the west with some subtropical flow over Texas and Oklahoma. While I suspect we’ll have daily risks of severe weather this week, this will bring the first ‘more serious’ looking day of this late May run. I’m not thinking big tornado event, but hailers seem pretty likely.

2. Then Next Week…

As we move into next week, one thing is becoming clear on models: consistent SW flow aloft, increasing moisture with time, and what will be a steady drumbeat of severe weather setups over the Plains for a week or two…at least.

The nature of the flow suggests that this will be a day-to-day mesoscale type of situation, where large areas aren’t favored for major severe weather, but things could come together in small regions to allow for significant severe weather. Where? I couldn’t tell you at this range…but that’s what this pattern looks like to me.

I’m seeing some subtleties in the surface patterns too, with stalled fronts, drylines, and more appearing depending on the day and the model's run. I don’t want to oversell late month: I don’t see a large-scale regional outbreak type of event on the horizon just yet — but I do think a lot of people will experience severe weather the last 15 days or so of this month.

For storm chasers like me, this is about as favorable a pattern for daily active severe weather as you could imagine for late month. For most of you, this is a good reminder to clean out those storm shelters if you haven’t done so recently, and to replace the batteries in your weather radio.

Yes, there will be severe weather — but it’s May. You know the drill if you’ve been on the Plains long enough. There’s no reason to panic, and there’s no reason to fall into hype doom loops from social media.

Stay tuned, we’ll have a lot more on this pattern in the coming days.

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1. Saturday then Sunday

A dryline sets up today with only modest upper-level support. Convergence in the dryline zone and just enough moisture could squeeze out a few storms that move east and south. Could. The atmosphere isn’t making any promises.

The catch is a familiar one. Right off the dryline, the low-level environment is dry, which means high cloud bases early on. By the time storms push far enough east into better moisture, the cap is likely strengthening. That leaves a pretty narrow window for anything significant, and an even narrower one for a tornado. Large hail is the headliner again today, with damaging winds as a secondary threat.

On Sunday, storms will be more numerous and geographically shunted further south. Hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats with these storms, only a very low tornado threat is expected and only if a dominant supercell can get going into the evening hours.

2. The Rest of May Looks Like June

The big story emerging for the rest of the season is how the jet stream is set to radically change and weaken about a month early, with a more summertime pattern setting up. This will mean less wind shear for storms but possibly more energy. As a storm chaser, the high CAPE/low shear days are far preferable to low CAPE/high shear days. The pattern is telling a pretty consistent story to what we’ve experienced much of the last week: tornado risks on the lower side, but not zero — with hail being the primary threat.

Starting off, early this week, a trough in the east and ridge in the west is the idealized “you don’t get severe weather anywhere” pattern. As moisture from the gulf stays locked up and air aloft sinks, the Plains will be rather quiet until later in the week.

By late week/the weekend A low will shift the high just a little east, allowing for some meager energy to work its way over the Plains. Since there won’t be a lot of moisture around with this round, expect that round to look a lot like this round with just enough moisture for big severe storms and just enough shear for supercells. But that should be the extent of it.

As we move into the last half of May, ridging will be dominant across the southern U.S. — the question is going to be what the jet stream can manage to do. While there will be a lot of jet energy north, the moisture will be pretty limited. This looks like a classic pattern where subtle/small shortwaves will be the drivers of storm activity, with day to day variability based on the results of the day before. Lines may lay out boundaries for new storms to form on the next day, and generally chaotic surface patterns will emerge. Eventually, we should have a closed low of some sort make its way out, the ensembles are trying to edge in that direction.

I’m not seeing a clear signal for BIG severe weather in late May, just a continued steady drumbeat which resembles this week. A few days on, a few days off. No major outbreaks, lots of mesoscale forecasting needed and gradually improving moisture through the end of the month to help make setups more volatile.

1. A Busy Day From Start to Finish

A lot is happening today, and it’s already underway. Elevated supercells are firing across western north Texas this morning, and they’re not messing around.

Strong deep-layer shear and an ejecting mid-level shortwave are fueling organized storms that will continue spreading east-northeast through north Texas and into southern Oklahoma.

Large to very large hail is the main threat through the morning. As these storms cross the warm front and tap into deeper moisture and instability across Arkansas and the Ozarks this afternoon, expect them to cluster up with a growing damaging wind threat.

The afternoon is where things escalate. New surface-based storms are expected to fire near the triple point from north-central Texas toward the ArkLaTex, and the environment waiting for them is very potent. We’re talking 4000+ J/kg of MLCAPE with 50 to 60+ knot deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates.

That’s the kind of atmosphere that produces very large to giant hail, two to four inches or more, with the strongest supercells. A tornado threat exists as well, though low-level shear isn’t screaming, so it’s more of an “any supercell that gets its act together could produce” situation rather than a high-end tornado setup.

Further east across the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South, the atmosphere is trying to recover from overnight convection.

A boundary left behind should lift north through the day, and as instability rebuilds, multiple rounds of supercells and multicell clusters look likely by evening. Large hail, widespread damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all on the table across that region. The Tennessee Valley gets less instability to work with but isn’t completely off the hook by late afternoon.

Busy day from Texas to the Mid-South. Stay weather aware, especially this afternoon into tonight.

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The Setup

A warm front will orient northwest to southeast across central and southeast Oklahoma. Storms should fire along it in the mid-to-late afternoon hours and go supercellular quickly. Giant hail and tornadoes are both real threats, driven by northwest flow aloft, strong low-level shear, and plenty of instability.

Moisture should pool along and near the warm front, which does two important things: it lowers cloud bases and adds extra instability compared to the ambient environment around it. Both of those factors favor tornado development. Expect several storms to fire in this regime, though they may become increasingly crowded and higher-precipitation as the day wears on. That transition from discrete supercells to messier storm mode is going to be the key forecast question.

The Chase Reality

The setup is one thing. Actually chasing it is another.

First, the terrain. I don’t know if you know this, but Oklahoma becomes a completely different animal once you cross I-35 heading east and south. The wide-open Plains give way to hills and trees that block your view, limit your escape routes, and turn storm positioning into a guessing game. Southeast Oklahoma is not where any chaser wants to be navigating a tornadic supercell.

Second, it’s a weekend. On a bigger risk. In Oklahoma. Chaser convergence is going to be real today. Every county road will have vehicles on it, and keeping up with cells becomes that much more difficult when you’re sharing the road with half the chasing community. It’s not that more people interested in weather is a bad thing. It’s just a logistical reality that anyone who chases in Oklahoma can attest to.

The Plan

Get out early. Stay flexible. Let the atmosphere show its hand before committing. We’ll have the live stream up and be reporting from the field sometime just after lunch. The environment supports a significant severe weather day. How the chase plays out is a separate question.

See you out there.

1. This Afternoon

SO YOU’RE SAYING THERE’S A CHANCE?

Yes. Sort of. Kind of. If you squint.

Moisture is returning north over the next day with a weak dryline pattern setting up across the Panhandles. This isn’t the kind of moisture that keeps me up at night. But there might be just enough to squeeze out a couple of higher-based storms if localized dryline convergence and mixing can muscle past a strong cap.

If something does fire, hail and maybe damaging winds would be the threats. Marginal in every sense of the word. This is the atmosphere doing the bare minimum and seeing if anyone notices.

Today on the social media profiles, I nerded out on why these setups struggle in regard to tomorrow, but it also applies to today. When 850mb winds blow hot and dry from the west and the dryline orients southwest to northeast, updrafts have to fight through a wall of dry air just to exist. The storms that do try tend to look like pencil-thin towers clawing for survival before the cap wins by sunset. It’s not impossible. It’s just not a setup that gets me reaching for my car keys.

2. Tomorrow Looks Like Last Week

I promise this isn’t a copy and paste from last week. I totally didn’t. But Mother Nature absolutely did.

Thursday’s setup is basically last Friday’s forecast wearing a different hat. Dryline across Oklahoma and Texas, cold front pushing south through the Central Plains. Storms will fire along the front from southeast Nebraska into eastern Kansas. That’s a lock. Big hail and damaging winds are the sure bets there.

But here’s where Thursday gets interesting, and where it separates from Wednesday by a mile. The ingredients along the dryline are high-end. If a storm can fire off that boundary, it would be very isolated in an environment that favors tornadoes, giant hail, and damaging winds. The SPC has introduced a 2% CIG 1 hatch risk, basically meaning tornadoes aren’t expected but if one were to happen it’d probably be strong. I’ve been waiting my whole life for that kind of an outlook.

The problem though? Most models remain dry on the dryline. The cap is weak at peak heating, sitting right on a knife’s edge, but weak and gone are two very different things. The jet stream energy is once again tracking further north, which sounds familiar because we watched this exact movie last Friday. Storms struggled to fire on the dryline that day while the cold front did all the work.

The question I’m asking myself is whether it’s worth the drive east. Eight or nine hours in a car is a big commitment for a dryline that might not fire. The cold front will produce regardless, but that’s not the kind of day that justifies the gas money and time off of work. But if that dryline fires…

Most likely scenario: a rerun of last week. Storms struggle on the dryline, the cold front puts on the show, and it’s a very active severe weather day that isn’t necessarily a great chase day. But with ingredients this good sitting behind a cap this thin, I’m not ruling anything out yet.

Friday could bring additional storms, but odds favor the front sweeping through and pushing the action east of our chase range.

Stay tuned. Maybe Mother Nature could finally surprise us and write a new script this time.

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3. The Weekend

We’re going to be out this weekend it seems in Oklahoma/S Kansas and even Texas. Another system approaches from the west with a more southerly track, which should allow for more of a traditional severe weather threat to materialize. I’ll try to bring you another newsletter Friday with more details on those risks.

1)Groundhog Day for Storms

I’ll be honest. My biggest debate this morning wasn’t the target area. It was whether I should just copy and paste yesterday’s forecast, add “but a little further east,” and hit publish.

Instead, let me put some actual effort into this.

Morning soundings confirmed what we already suspected: steep lapse rates aloft, 7.5 to 8 degrees per kilometer in the 700-500mb layer, sitting on top of a very moist return-flow airmass. That’s an angry atmosphere, and it’s going to go off.

Round one starts early. Storms will develop near the dryline by mid-afternoon and go supercellular out of the gate. The stronger updrafts will be capable of large to very large hail initially, with all hazards coming into play as storms mature. This is the window where individual cells are most impressive and most dangerous.

Round two fires in the afternoon as additional storms join the party. Here’s where the forecast gets familiar: those new storms will favor clustering and upscale growth, likely merging into bands and linear segments by evening. The hodographs are partly to blame. Forecast soundings show somewhat limited low-level wind profiles with a veer-back-veer signature, which is the atmosphere’s way of nudging storms toward messy mode rather than keeping them discrete.

The tornado question is the same one it’s been all week: storm mode. The threat is there and it’s elevated, not zero. Residual outflow from overnight convection pushing into the Ozarks could enhance low-level shear later today, which would be a boost. But whether we see tornadoes largely depends on whether storms can maintain supercell structure before the inevitable march toward linear chaos.

The sure bets remain the same. Large hail with early supercells, damaging winds as things organize, and a long afternoon-into-evening event that demands attention if you’re in the path.

If yesterday’s forecast sounded a lot like this, that’s because the atmosphere is running the same playbook with a slight geographic shift. Sometimes the sky isn’t that creative either.

Packed. Ready. Let’s Go Storm Chasing.

Yesterday brought a multi-state tornado outbreak, and the atmosphere isn’t finished. Today sets up another busy round of severe weather across the Plains, and I’ll be out live chasing it this afternoon.

The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting an area from Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas for an enhanced risk. Modest height falls across the central to southern Plains combined with convergence along the dryline should be enough to get storms going. Strong heating through the afternoon will erode the capping, and by mid-afternoon, we should see storms firing along the dryline in Oklahoma and points north and south.

What they fire into is an impressive airmass. We’re looking at 2500 to 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE, which means the atmosphere is extremely unstable and ready to fuel powerful updrafts. Combine that with elongated hodographs and you have an environment that strongly favors supercells. The SPC increased their hail and hail-intensity highlights this morning for good reason. Large to giant hail is a confident bet today with any sustained supercell.

This is where it gets interesting, and where I’ll be paying the closest attention. The strength of low-level shear during the early evening remains the biggest question mark, and that’s exactly the window when the tornado risk could peak. One big key for how today goes is if a dominant supercell can separate itself from the pack. Storm interactions can help spin up tornadoes, but there’s a tipping point. Too many powerful storms firing at once and they start competing for the same air and space. It’s like putting five elite athletes on one lane of a track.

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The shear profile overall looks favorable for supercells and a tornado or two is on the table. If a storm can carve out its own territory along the dryline and tap into strengthening low-level shear as the evening progresses, that’s the scenario where today’s tornado potential gets realized.

Even if the tornado threat stays on the lower end, today is not a day to shrug off. Large hail, potentially giant, and damaging winds are going to be the main story from this afternoon well into the overnight hours. The instability alone guarantees that any storm that matures will be capable of producing significant severe weather.

I’ll be positioning along the dryline in Oklahoma this afternoon, watching for initiation and looking for that one storm that starts to separate and organize. If it happens, that’s where I’ll be pointing the car. Come ride along on the live stream later today.

Set Your Reminder

1. Monday and Tuesday

Monday is the deep breath before the week gets loud. A few storms could fire, and anything that does will probably be severe, but the setup is stuck awkwardly between active systems to the west and east. That middle ground is usually where storms go to not exist. We’ll be watching, but Monday isn’t the story.

Tuesday is.

A wave ejects in the early to mid-afternoon, dragging plentiful shear behind it, and it’s walking into an atmosphere that’s ready to explode. We’re talking extreme instability in some areas, dewpoints near 70, and very little capping to slow things down. The fuel is there. The trigger is there.

So what’s the concern? Storm mode. Shear doesn’t start off strong, with 0-3km storm-relative helicity below 100 initially, though it increases into the evening. With lower cloud bases and 0-6km shear above 35 knots, my bet is we see a mixed bag of HP supercells and more linear segments. That means a lot of storms producing large hail and damaging winds with an elevated-to-low tornado threat. It’s a big day. It’s just not a clean day.

2. Wednesday and Thursday

Wednesday shares a lot of DNA with Tuesday but turns the shear dial up. A dryline sharpens over the south-central Plains with plenty of instability and stronger environmental wind shear, 0-6km values near and above 50 knots as storms form. Helicity starts unimpressive but climbs substantially by the evening, with 0-1km SRH values over 100 m²/s² becoming common. That’s an environment that can support supercells and tornadoes.

The enemy for storm chasing is the same as Tuesday: storm mode. Wonky wind profiles early on could push storms into clusters or lines before the shear really gets cooking. Still, Wednesday is shaping up to be another busy severe weather day, potentially the more dangerous of the two.

Thursday is the palette cleanser. We’re back in transition between systems. The dryline won’t be sharp, moisture will be retreating westward most of the day, and convergence along the gradient will be pretty contained. My guess? Sparse storms, late in the day, further south in the I-20 corridor. Not my favorite area to chase personally, and the environment overall just isn’t giving much. Think of Thursday as the week catching its breath.

3. Friday

Then comes Friday. And I need you to pay attention to this one.

Both the GFS and Euro are showing a strong system emerging onto the Plains by Friday afternoon. Sharp dryline. Strong 850mb winds. Backed surface flow. If you know what those ingredients mean together, you already feel the hair on your arms standing up. This is a tornado setup.

How high-end? Potentially very. But there’s a catch, and it’s an important one. The wave timing may not cooperate and that has made many a ‘favorable-looking day’ at this range turn to nothing by the day of. Neither the Euro nor the GFS is producing much precipitation along the dryline across Oklahoma or Texas, with the action favoring Kansas instead. That’s the kind of detail that can be the difference between a historic day and a highly localized one. We’ll need to see what the convection-allowing models do with this before making any big calls.

Here’s the bottom line: there’s a real chance Friday generates some significant risk headlines if storms look likely up and down the dryline. Keep it in the back of your mind as we work through the earlier days this week. I’ll have more on Friday across our social media, and YouTube members will get a dedicated forecast video as we get closer.

4. Our First Twister of the Year

It wasn’t much, but here is the biggest ‘highlight’ of my first day out yesterday near Las Vegas, NM, where we watched a supercell quickly ramp up and produce a tornado in rapid succession before it dissipated and we had a multicell slop-fest the rest of the day.

Las Vegas is a tornado hotbed that has been historically undercounted, and it’s not hard to understand why. The terrain east of town has few roads and even fewer people. Unless you’re a storm chaser purposefully looking for a tornado out here, nobody’s reporting one. Unlike the DCVZ, most of the tornadoes that form in this area are supercellular in nature, which makes the undercount even more frustrating because these aren’t random spin-ups. They’re real storms doing real things with no one watching.

I’ve now seen a tornado in this area every year for the last four years running. And given how early in the calendar this one occurred, I wouldn’t be surprised if I add another before the year is out.

1. Today: Wind/Hail, Low Risk

Yesterday brought big hail and damaging winds, and the atmosphere isn’t done yet. I’m genuinely curious what storms can pull off today because the ingredients are there, just not all in the same place.

Two zones to watch. First, a stalled front draped along the OK/KS border stretching into southern Missouri on one end and Colorado on the other. Moisture is more plentiful here, but so are the storms, which means competition for the fuel. The strongest cells should still produce damaging winds and large hail. Not seeing much of a tornado threat again today. The theme of the past few days has been lots of storms but few that had strong rotation, today should continue that trend though the ingredients are ever so slightly better than yesterday.

Second, the dryline out across the southern High Plains. Moisture is still lacking but keeps inching up, enough to let storms flex a little harder than they have been. Damaging winds and maybe some near-severe hail across the Panhandles back into New Mexico. Standard low-end risk territory. Nothing that gets a chaser’s blood pumping, but exactly the kind of day that keeps weather-aware people weather-aware.

2. The Weekend…And Beyond!

Now here’s where I start leaning forward in my chair.

Saturday gets busy. A wave approaches the region with weak capping, which is basically the atmosphere leaving the door wide open. Storms will fire across eastern New Mexico and further east, especially off the caprock and into the open warm sector. Moisture is there. Shear is there. The problem? Storms will know it too, and when everybody shows up to the party at once, they start crowding each other out. Expect a growing complex by evening, but before that messy phase, large hail and damaging winds are a sure bet. And if a robust supercell can get going before the crowd arrives, storm interactions could briefly spin up a low-level mesocyclone. A rogue tornado isn’t out of the question.

Sunday is the weird kid in the middle. The environment actually favors severe storms with anything that forms, but the atmosphere might not cooperate on the “forming” part. We’re stuck in an awkward gap between a departing wave to the east and a more potent one to the west. Hostile upper levels could keep storm coverage frustratingly low. It’s the meteorological equivalent of having all the groceries but no stove.

Monday and Tuesday are the ones I’m circling. Large hail and damaging winds are locked in, but the tornado risk starts climbing. The system moving in is one of the strongest we’ve seen this spring, and it’s going to fuel a powerful low-level jet. Chasers know what that means. Strong low-level jets tend to set the table for more tornadic setups. But the details that make or break a tornado day are still TBD. I’ll have a lot more to say about early next week as we get closer.

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1. Today’s Threat

April on the Southern Plains. Storms everywhere, nothing to fall in love with as a storm chaser most likely. That’s today.

From the Rio Grande up through Oklahoma and into the Midwest, storms will fire by 3-4 p.m. and crowd together early before a front pushes through and builds a stout line heading into tonight. This is the kind of day where the atmosphere checks every box on a technical level but the storm mode keeps things from getting too interesting.

Instability is moderate with CAPE values of 2000-2500 j/kg common at peak heating, and 0-6km bulk shear in the 30-40kt range. Just enough of both for robust severe storms. Shear is good enough that you could convince me a couple of storms might rotate early on. That early window is where the biggest hail lives and where a low tornado risk sneaks in.

While the severe weather environment is favorable, the tornado parameters aren’t really there. 3CAPE values are sitting below 100 j/kg and 0-1km SRH is generally well below 100 m2/s2 across the region. Those two values are the ones that make storm chasers lean forward in their chair if they are higher, and today they’re just not there. It’s April, though, and flukes happen. I’ve learned to never say never in this month.

As the evening wears on, the threat shifts to damaging winds as the line takes over. That’s the main headline for most of you, especially overnight.

This is unlikely to be a day we can all recall from memory as a day of note this season, but it’s a day worth paying attention to if storms are heading your way. It could be a loud night at the very least.

2. A Look Into The Extended

Most, if not all, of next week will be remarkably quiet across the SC Plains back into the Southwest as ridging in the west wins out again for a period of time. But, it is now Spring and things do not stay static for long this time of year.

By the weekend, SW flow aloft will begin to take shape over the SC Plains with the subtropical jet and polar jet phasing over the middle of the country. I’ll just be honest, models aren’t quite sure what to make of this pattern on th severe weather side yet, and neither do I.

But given the time of year this is a stormy pattern at the very least. How stormy/how severe is the question we’ll probably need a few more days of model data for. As of last night the Euro was still pretty aggressive on rain but not on severe weather while the GFS really liked the idea of more severe storms.

Stay tuned!

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1. Threat Centers on W. OK Today

Okay, now we’re talking. After yesterday’s hail/wind event, today feels like an atmosphere on a new level, and I could see it the moment I pulled up the data this morning.

This is a real severe weather day. Hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, the full menu is on the table. Every single one of those threats comes with caveats, but with a strong wave arriving late this afternoon and a ton of storms expected across the South Central Plains, severe weather reports are basically inevitable. It’s not a question of if, just how many.

Storms should start firing an hour or so on either side of 4 p.m. and move east/north, likely clustering into a line with time. Here’s how the threats evolve: the early storms bring the biggest hail danger. As they line out, damaging winds take over as the main player. Cloud bases will start high but lower toward sunset, and that’s when the tornado risk really picks up. If a more mature QLCS gets going, that tornado threat could carry into the overnight hours too.

One more thing. It’s going to feel gloomy all day with thick high clouds hanging around, and your phone is probably going to be busy with warnings. A lot of people are going to feel like they’re “in on the action” today. But let me put it in perspective: this is a day you adjust your plans around the weather, not a day the weather cancels your plans. Stay aware, stay flexible, and you’ll be fine.

1. Today’s Setup

I’ve been chasing storms for over 20 years, and there’s a category of day that I just kind of shrug my shoulders at. Today is that day.

It’s the textbook Plains setup. Hail, wind, a bunch of storms firing off by late afternoon. If you asked me to draw it on a whiteboard, I’d probably sketch something almost identical to what’s happening right now. Moisture is creeping up a little from yesterday but still on the low end of useful. A system moving in will steepen lapse rates and add lift, and that’s going to be just enough to get things going.

The wind fields are weak with the main system still well to the west, so storm organization is going to be a struggle. Could a transient supercell sneak in? Sure. But the most likely storm mode today is what I lovingly call blobby wind bags with some hail mixed in early. If the low levels mix out, you’re looking at damaging gusts near 70 mph in spots. That’s not nothing.

I have never once loaded up the car with vigor for a setup like this. But that’s a chaser problem, not a you problem. If you’re in the path, have a plan. We’ve all been through days like this before. Just respect it and move on with your evening.

2. Tomorrow

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the best thing I can say is it looks like today just with better ingredients from top to bottom. Slightly better moisture, much stronger shear, slightly higher instability.

This will still lead, thanks to stronger lift as well, to a linear complex with time. We may also see initial supercells for a brief window, depending on how strong the lift is when it arrives. But the stronger shear, especially at low levels, may lead to at least a low tornado threat tomorrow with storms near and after dark.

This could be twisters of the QLCS variety, so they’ll be quick spin-up things.

Listen, a marginal risk of severe storms is still a severe risk. But I can’t help it. Look at these little storms. So full of potential and energy and vigor and…

Ok, I’m not sure where I was going with that either.

Here’s what’s actually happening: damaging winds are possible today from dry thunderstorms. These storms form very high up in the atmosphere, and most of the rain evaporates before it ever hits the ground. That can produce dry microbursts, basically a sudden punch of wind hitting the surface with nothing to show for it rain wise.

It’s a genuinely cool atmospheric trick. Right up until you’re standing outside in 60mph gusts, watching your neighbor’s trampoline achieve flight as dust fills the scene.

This threat peaks late afternoon and fades at sunset. More classic setups are coming in the next few weeks. Consider this one the opening act.

2. Rest of the Week

I’m genuinely tempted to chase both Wednesday and Friday this week, though there’s a voice in the back of my head saying “don’t burn yourself out before June.” We’ll see who wins that argument.

Wednesday is the day that has my attention. A dryline sets up across the western parts of the region as an upper storm system moves overhead, and that should weaken the cap enough for several storms to fire in a supercell-friendly environment. The ingredients for big hail are all there: solid lapse rates, plenty of instability in the hail growth zone. Wednesday afternoon could be a classic early spring hail festival. Later in the evening, storms will line out along a surging cold front with damaging winds, and there’s at least a low tornado threat as low-level shear cranks up. I’m not convinced this is a big tornado day, but that early supercell window before things go linear? That’s the part I want to be out for.

Friday is the next candidate, but I’m less confident. Wednesday’s cold front will push through and could leave us short on moisture, plus capping could be an issue. The upper system tracks further north, which limits the overall lift. Storms should still manage to form in a supercell-favorable environment, possibly high-based. Another cold front surge in the evening is likely to organize things into a line again, but the low-level shear is weaker, so the tornado threat drops another notch.

In between, Tuesday and Thursday both carry lower-end severe risks with damaging winds and hail possible. Not chase days for me, but worth watching if you’re in the path.

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Then you stand in front of one, and none of it looks like the diagram.

That’s the part nobody warns you about. I’ve been chasing for over 20 years, and I still have moments where I’m staring at a storm trying to reconcile what I’m seeing with what I know is supposed to be there. It happens to us all, weather breaks every rule at least once.

Supercells are structurally consistent in theory and absolutely chaotic in practice. The bones are always the same. The skin is different every single time.

So instead of walking you through a single diagram, I want to show you three real supercells. Three storms I was standing in front of. Each one looks completely different from the others, and that’s exactly the point. Once you can identify the same anatomy across storms that look nothing alike, you’re seeing what chasers see.

But first, the one thing you need to be able to spot before anything else makes sense.

The Updraft: Learn This First, Everything Else Follows

I cannot overstate how much of storm chasing comes down to watching the updraft. It’s the engine of the storm. It’s the part that tells you what’s about to happen next. If you can find the updraft, you can start reading everything else around it.

So what does it actually look like? Sometimes it looks like a dark cloud mass directly overhead, the kind that makes you instinctively look up and think “that’s not friendly.” Sometimes it looks like a towering cumulus column punching into the sky, visible from 50 miles away. And sometimes it looks like a lowered base sitting on the horizon, looking dense and organized and very much alive.

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Three very different visuals, same feature. Find the updraft and you’ve found the storm’s center of gravity. Everything else orients around it.

Storm #1: The Elegant One (Low-Precipitation Supercell)

I’m looking west at this storm, which is the classic chase position. And this one is gorgeous. Clean structure, easy to read. If supercells had a beauty pageant, this one would be a finalist.

The updraft is right there in front of me. And since I’m looking west, the forward flank downdraft is off to the right. That’s your rain and hail core, where most of the practical damage from a supercell happens. In this case, it’s almost transparent. This is a low-precipitation supercell, which means the forward flank isn’t dumping much rain. You can practically see through it. LP supercells are a photographer’s dream for exactly this reason.

Below the updraft, there’s a subtle lowered area. That’s the wall cloud. It doesn’t look dramatic here, but it’s rotating. I watched air rising into it, feeding the updraft above. Behind the wall cloud, on the west side, the rear flank downdraft is working its way around the mesocyclone toward the east side.

There’s no obvious inflow tail on this storm, but look at the air near the top of the updraft. You can see it streaming in and wrapping around the base. That’s inflow. The storm is pulling air into itself like it’s breathing.

And here’s the thing about this particular storm: it’s about to produce a tornado. Right after this moment, a funnel began forming. Rising motion spiraling up into the base. The base itself is starting to look smoother, more laminar. That smoothness is a sign. When the bottom of a storm starts looking polished instead of ragged where there’s a lot of motion, it usually means rotation is tightening. I’ve learned to pay very close attention when that transition happens.

This storm is textbook. You can see every feature, label every part. Which is great, because the next one is going to be less easy.

Storm #2: The Brawler (Classic Supercell)

I’m looking northwest at this storm and it is a completely different animal. If Storm #1 was elegant, this one showed up looking for a fight.

The updraft is there, but the whole scene around it is busier, messier, more aggressive. Off to the right, the forward flank downdraft is dark. Really dark. That rain and hail core is loaded and it looks menacing even from a distance. Classic supercell behavior.

Now here’s where it gets interesting. There’s a prominent wall cloud hanging below the updraft base, clearly lowered and clearly rotating. Behind it, the rear flank downdraft is surging. I can see a shelf cloud being pushed outward on the left side of the lowered area, where the cloud slants away from the precipitation. That shelf is the RFD making its presence known, physically shoving air outward as it wraps around.

In the middle of all this, rotation. Not dramatic, not photogenic, but visible. I can see dust getting kicked up near the surface as the rear flank downdraft curls around. And the wheat in the foreground? Blowing straight into the storm. That’s inflow at the surface, feeding the updraft, keeping the whole machine running.

This storm also produced a tornado after this moment. But I want you to notice something: when you see a dark, surging RFD wrapping behind a visible wall cloud like this, the tornado that follows is almost always rain-wrapped. Nine times out of ten. That gorgeous structure you’re watching is about to disappear behind a curtain of rain, and whatever happens next, you’re not going to see it. That’s exactly what happened here.

Just because a storm is classic now doesn’t mean it’ll stay that way. Supercells change their appearance, sometimes many times over their life-cycles.

Two storms, two tornadoes, two completely different visual experiences. And we’ve still got one more.

Storm #3: The Chaos Monster (High-Precipitation Supercell)

This storm looks nothing like the first two. Absolutely nothing. If I showed you all three side by side, you might not believe they share the same anatomy. This is a high-precipitation supercell, and it is pandemonium.

The updraft is massive. It’s right in front of me, enormous and imposing, the kind of storm that makes the sky feel like it’s lowering onto you. The forward flank downdraft? It’s back there somewhere, buried behind layers of rain and murk. Hard to see, hard to separate from the rest of the storm. HP supercells don’t give you clean lines between features. Everything bleeds together.

The rear flank downdraft is the wildest part. There’s a glowing area of precipitation that marks it, but there’s also this dark mass moving from right to left. That’s the RFD surging around the mesocyclone. And because this is an HP storm, the tornadic area is already being swallowed by rain.

The wall cloud? It was there. Then it wasn’t. The rain just ate it. Above me, a rear flank downdraft shelf cloud is pushing outward, but it’s not well-defined because honestly, nothing about this storm is well-defined. To the right, inflow is still feeding in, and this thing just went completely, hopelessly rain-wrapped.

If there’s a tornado in there, and the storm absolutely has the structure to produce one, nobody is seeing it. This is the kind of storm where you have to trust your radar and your instincts, because your eyes aren’t going to help you.

You Can Do This

Three supercells. Same parts list. Completely different presentations. That’s the reality of reading storms in the field. The diagrams give you vocabulary. The real world gives you a thousand variations on the same theme and asks you to figure it out in real time while the wind is picking up and the sky is turning green.

I love it. Every single time.

The more storms you watch, the faster you’ll start recognizing the updraft, the downdrafts, the inflow, the rotation. And once those pieces click, you stop seeing a wall of chaos and start seeing a machine with moving parts. It doesn’t get less awe-inspiring when you understand it. If anything, it gets more so. Knowing what you’re looking at makes the spectacle bigger, not smaller.

Want to see all three storms in motion? The full video walkthrough is above, where I point out every feature in real time as the storms evolve.

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Am I oversimplifying? Yeah, I am. Is this a framework of a technique every storm chaser on planet earth uses? Yes, yes it is.

The thing nobody tells you about severe weather forecasting is that the baseline version of it is shockingly accessible. You’re not going to come out of this as a meteorologist. You’re not going to nail a tornado forecast on your first try. But you are going to look at a map of the United States and know — with actual reasoning behind it — where the action is most likely to occur today. That’s more than most people ever get to.

Here’s the whole process, start to finish.

1. Start Where the Pros Start: The Storm Prediction Center Outlook

Before you touch a single model or chart, go to the Storm Prediction Center’s Day 1 Outlook (spc.noaa.gov). This is where NOAA’s actual severe weather forecasters lay out where they think the risk is today — highlighted right on the map with a color-coded scale.

You’ll see categories from “General Thunderstorms” up through “Marginal,” “Slight,” “Enhanced,” “Moderate,” and “High.” You can also toggle between tornado, hail, and wind risk individually. Don’t get hung up on what the exact percentages mean right now. Honestly, that rabbit hole goes deep and the definitions shift depending on who you ask. Just know: brighter colors, bigger risk. That’s your starting zone.

This is your “where should I even be looking?” answer. Bookmark it. It’s your first click every single day during storm season.

Sidenote: You don’t actually know more than the folks at the SPC. Trust me. They’re smarter than you when it comes to severe storms in every way.

2. See Where Storms Actually Form: HRRR Reflectivity + Updraft Helicity

Now head to a modeling site. We recommend either Pivotal Weather (pivotalweather.com) or the WeatherFront App. There are a bunch of great model-viewing sites out there, but Pivotal is clean and free and what a lot of chasers use daily.

You’re going to pull up the HRRR model — that’s the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, and it updates every hour, which means it’s the closest thing to a real-time storm simulator you’re going to get. Find the product called “Reflectivity + Updraft Helicity.”

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Here’s what you’re looking at: The reflectivity shows you where storms are predicted to form. Those bright blobs are thunderstorms on the model. But the real magic is the updraft helicity — those little streaks running through the storm cells. When you see a streak, the model is saying this storm is spinning. That’s your signal for a potential supercell.

One important caveat: the HRRR changes dramatically through the day. A morning run might show storms in a completely different spot than the afternoon run. That’s normal. You’re looking for trends and general areas, not GPS coordinates.

3. Find the Rotation: 0-3km Updraft Helicity

Stay on Pivotal Weather and switch to the “Updraft Helicity 0–3 km” product. This one zooms in on what’s happening in the lower atmosphere specifically.

Those streaks you see here? The model is projecting low-level rotation — the kind that’s directly tied to mesocyclones and, eventually, tornadoes. Compare this to the reflectivity chart you just looked at. If the storms from chart #2 are discrete, individual cells (not a big squall line) and they’re showing strong low-level vorticity streaks here, you’re looking at a setup that could produce serious weather. You can get serious weather with lines for the record as well, but the forecasting there gets a little trickier and we’re not touching that with a 9 foot pole just yet (but soon).

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What you are doing is building a picture now. SPC told you the general area. The HRRR told you where storms form. This chart is telling you which of those storms might be doing something especially dangerous. Easy enough so far?

4. Overlay the Environment: Supercell Composite + Significant Tornado Parameter

Here’s where you start stacking information. Pull up the Supercell Composite (SCP) chart — same site, same model. This shows you where the overall atmospheric environment is most favorable for supercell thunderstorms. Where you see the highest values (brightest colors on the map), that’s where conditions are most primed. SCP is not perfect, but this is a basic instruction so just keep in mind it does have some practical limitations.

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Now overlay that mentally with where your storms were forming in charts 2 and 3. Storms forming in the area with the highest supercell composite values? That’s your bullseye for the most significant severe weather of the day.

For tornadoes specifically, add one more layer: the Significant Tornado Parameter (STP). Find where the strongest 0–3 km vorticity tracks line up with the highest STP values. Where those two agree, that’s your best bet for tornado potential. Chasers call this “target selection” — and these four charts are genuinely how most of us start narrowing it down (even if we don’t want to admit it).

5. Confirm It With a Sounding (It’s Easier Than It Looks)

This is the one that scares people off, and it shouldn’t. Go back to that Supercell Composite map and click directly on the area you’ve been zeroing in on. It’ll pull up a sounding — a vertical profile of the atmosphere at that point.

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It looks like another language. It kind of is. But you only need to check four things:

Temperature-Dewpoint Spread: Find the temperature line and the dewpoint line. Subtract the dewpoint from the temperature. If the difference is 20°F or less, cloud bases will be low enough that tornadoes are very much on the table. Between 20–30°F, you’re looking at potentially photogenic supercells with large hail and strong winds. Above 30°F, storms can still be severe, but they’ll tend to be higher-based and less likely to produce tornadoes.

LCL and LFC Separation: Find these two values (they’ll be labeled). You want them close together. When they’re tight, it means the atmosphere is uncapped — storms can fire easily and sustain themselves. When there’s a big gap, storms struggle to get going and stay going.

Effective Storm-Relative Helicity (SRH): Find this value and check it against the scale provided. Higher is better for organized, rotating storms. Tornadoes become more likely at values of over 150 m2/s2. Simple as that.

MLCAPE (Mixed-Layer Convective Available Potential Energy): This tells you how much fuel is in the atmosphere. Think of it as the storm’s energy budget. There are standard categories from “weak” through “extreme”. Ideally I like at least 1500 j/kg MLCAPE for storm chasing but if you are looking for severe weather near your home, 500 j/kg or more is notable.

Here is where you can find each of these on WeatherFront:

That’s it. You now have a target area with environmental confirmation. You know where storms are forming, which ones might rotate, and whether the atmosphere can support something significant.

Watch the full video about this technique here:

Put it all together and this is genuinely the process: SPC narrows the region, the model charts identify specific storms and rotation, the composite parameters tell you where the environment is most volatile, and the sounding confirms the details. Most chasers you see on YouTube did some version of this exact workflow before they ever left their driveway.

Is this a perfect workflow? No. Is it the full picture? Not even close — there are layers upon layers of nuance that take years to develop a feel for. But you now have a legitimate foundation to build off of. You can look at a forecast day and form your own opinion about what’s going to happen and where. Test it out, and notice patterns and trends and build upon this foundation to improve your own forecasts.

And, as always, trust the experts at the NWS and SPC when it comes to life-saving actions.

Weather is for everybody. That includes you.

I prepared this outlook before the tornadoes at the start of March, but I haven’t had to change much because the activity has been well within what I expected for the year thus far. Hopefully, I can continue to look and feel smart through the spring.

Editor’s Note: This is the text version of our seasonal forecast for storm chasing. I initially released this to our YouTube channel members as a video over a month ago. Click here to join.

Executive Summary

Every year around this time, I sit down with months of data — climate models, analog years, sea surface temperatures, drought maps, jet stream forecasts — and try to answer a question that the atmosphere doesn’t want answered: what kind of tornado season are we in for?

It’s an important exercise for someone like me who needs a framework to guide decision-making when I take valuable PTO to chase vs. when I should save that time off for the next setup.

This year, the data is telling a surprisingly coherent story. An ENSO transition is underway, the Gulf of Mexico remains above average (at or near its 2023 peaks), and a stubborn upper-level ridge is threatening to sit on top of or just west of Tornado Alley during the months that matter most. But buried underneath the big-picture signals, there are hints of a late-season pattern shift that could make the back half of this season genuinely interesting — if you know where to look and you’re willing to wait for it.

What follows is my full breakdown: the forces shaping the season, what each month is likely to bring, where the action will be (and where it won’t), and how I’m planning to approach chase season. Spoiler: Patience is going to be a virtue this year.

What’s Driving This Season

Three forces are working against us early on, and one big wildcard could rescue the back half.

The ENSO Transition. We’re coming out of La Niña right now, with the Niño 3.4 index sitting near -0.8°C. But underneath the surface, things are changing fast. Massive Kelvin wave activity in the western Pacific is pushing warm water eastward, and the subsurface warming trend is accelerating. I was expecting the CPC to get more aggressive with their El Niño calls and I wasn’t disappointed. I think the transition is happening fast and may be complete by summer. That transition is the single most important variable for how this season ends.

The Gulf of Mexico. Gulf SSTs are currently running a whopping +1.5°C above normal or so! The Gulf cooled substantially through late January but have since rebounded with record warmth. When compared to a recent analog year of 2023, you’ll see the Gulf is pretty comparable right now, but the key will be where it goes from here. Models hint at a couple of strong fronts passing through the Gulf in the next week — which will cool it some. Most likely it will end up above average but perhaps not to the scale of 2023, when record-warm Gulf temperatures fueled that insane March 31 outbreak. If the Gulf remains near record warm, I will get pretty bullish about April — but models have had those pretty significant frontal intrusions which may put a cap on what the Gulf can reasonably warm to. Still, it’s well above average which means when we get systems moving into the Plains they won’t struggle with moisture from the south.

The Drought. D2 through D4 drought covers nearly the entire southern Plains, Gulf States, and Deep South. CPC’s seasonal drought outlook shows it persisting through at least the end of April. Dry soils mean less evapotranspiration, which means the boundary layer becomes almost entirely dependent on direct Gulf moisture return, which is a bigger (but not impossible) ask. With the hot/dry air over the high terrain of New Mexico up through Montana, the direct result becomes strong capping (which we’ve already seen), steep lapse rates (again yep), and an atmosphere that produces several ‘loaded gun’ setups throughout the Spring.

The Ridge. Climate models have tended to show continued ridging over the western/central U.S. through at least April, with positive height anomalies easing in May and June. That’s a monster cap and area of sinking air sitting right on top of Tornado Alley during what should be the ramp-up month. We’re seeing that ridge build right now over the Southwest. It’ll be a factor much of the Spring. Models have the ridge shifting west by May, partially opening the door, and relaxing significantly by June. That progression is the roadmap for the season.

Month by Month

Rest of March: Mixed Signals

The pattern overall looks like a strong ridge builds in with lots of cold air to the east and repeated frontal intrusions into the Gulf. This will make things very difficult in terms of getting severe storms across the country until at least March 22-23, if not longer. Any real activity probably shifted into the Southeast US and later in the month from here to be sure. We will end at/near average if things don’t pick up in a big way.

April: Patience Required

The ridge is at peak strength over Tornado Alley in April, according to climate models. My read right now is that most of April will feel empty. But here’s the thing — multiple analog years produced a notable burst in late April with multiple days of solid chasing occurring as the ridge breaks down and a trough punches through. In fact, one analog year (2009) produced a high risk tornado outbreak in late April! I will chase in this month most likely, but I’m going to be patient and wait for the Southern Plains to get active to be sure.

May: The Slog

This is where the season gets frustrating/interesting/a bit of both. Every analog year shows a below-average May but not an entirely quiet May. The subtropical jet brings in those 30-knot 500mb winds with 15-knot 850s — enough shear to make you say “well, maybe” but not enough to organize anything impressive. You’ll see supercells initiate off the dryline, struggle with the cap for hours, and then either gust out or produce a brief spin-up before dying. If you chased in 2023, you know this feeling intimately. I think the pace of chase days will pick up dramatically as the month goes on with near daily chasing by the end of the month. Nothing BIG RISK, but just a slow and steady drumbeat day after day. I like those patterns personally as they make for productive storm chasing.

June: The Rescue Month

This is where it gets interesting. Every analog year shows above-average June tornado activity. As El Niño establishes, the subtropical jet energizes, the ridge relaxes, and moisture return from the Gulf finally has a flow regime it can work with long-term. The geographic sweet spot shifts to the High Plains and central Plains — think an L-shaped corridor from eastern New Mexico/Panhandles up through southeast Wyoming and east into Nebraska. If the ENSO transition cooperates, expect a sustained burst of chase-worthy activity with the potential for a big day or three in there.

July: The Overlooked Extension

Here’s something most seasonal outlooks miss: July was above average for tornadoes in every single analog year. Some years it even surpassed April in total activity. The season doesn’t end on June 30. If El Niño is humming by midsummer, northern Plains supercells could extend the window well into July.

An Important Sidebar: Tornado Intensity

One consistent and notable signal across the analogs: fewer strong and violent tornadoes than normal. One analog year even produced zero EF4/5 tornadoes nationwide. This isn’t random — it’s a function of the subtropical jet regime. You get adequate mid-level shear but weaker low-level jets because deep surface cyclogenesis is suppressed. That combination produces supercells but limits the low-level rotation needed for significant tornadoes. Expect the vast majority of this year’s tornadoes to be EF0–EF1. That doesn’t mean violent tornadoes are impossible, but the physics of flow regimes work against them.

Hot Zones and Cold Zones

🔴 Hot Zone: Nebraska, Northern/Western Kansas, Eastern Colorado, and SE Wyoming

Less drought, favorable positioning on the ridge periphery, and the primary beneficiary of the June–July pattern transition. This is where the season happens in a big way if El Niño delivers.

🔴 Hot Zone: Eastern Oklahoma through the Mid-Mississippi Valley

Early-season QLCS events and embedded supercells when the jet streams through ahead of shortwave energy. I’m thinking April for this region will be more active. The dryline will set up further east than normal, and fire weather on its backside will be epic — very reminiscent of 2009. We’ve already seen this pattern a bit earlier this month.

🔵 Cold Zone: Far Northern Plains (Dakotas)

Last year was a bonanza up here, but this year’s engine is the subtropical jet, not the polar jet. Canada might be active, but the Dakotas are unlikely to repeat 2025’s performance.

⚡ Wildcard: Southern Plains

Some analog years show a concentrated 3–4 day burst here in late May or June — enough to make it look like a hot zone in hindsight. The analog year I’m warming up to (1997) was a big year on the Southern Plains with consistent activity in May and June. If the pattern briefly cooperates and the dryline sets up in its climatological sweet spot, this area could help tip the mood about this chase season as one that was pretty active even if the numbers don’t reflect it totally.

The Chase Season in a Sentence

Be opportunistic early, be patient through May, and be ready to go north and west when June arrives.

The Final Verdict

This is going to be a near average to slightly below average tornado season — but absolutely not a quiet one.

The first half of spring will test your patience as a storm chaser. The second half might reward it. The most likely scenario is a slow start, a steady pickup through May, and a legitimate burst of activity beginning in late May or June as El Niño emerges.

A near-average finish is very much in play if June and July deliver, which is why that category sits at 50%. And the 10% above average? That’s my floor — because it only takes one pattern to lock in for a week to cluster up 200 tornado reports, and I’ve been doing this long enough to never say never. The downside risk is real, though. If the subtropical jet is weaker than anticipated, we may still get a steady stream of chase days but few actual tornadoes in the heart of the season.

Outlook Probability

Above Average (15% or more above normal): 10% chance

Average (Within 15% of normal): 50% chance

Below Average (15% or more below normal): 40% chance