1. A Busy Day From Start to Finish

A lot is happening today, and it’s already underway. Elevated supercells are firing across western north Texas this morning, and they’re not messing around.

Strong deep-layer shear and an ejecting mid-level shortwave are fueling organized storms that will continue spreading east-northeast through north Texas and into southern Oklahoma.

Large to very large hail is the main threat through the morning. As these storms cross the warm front and tap into deeper moisture and instability across Arkansas and the Ozarks this afternoon, expect them to cluster up with a growing damaging wind threat.

The afternoon is where things escalate. New surface-based storms are expected to fire near the triple point from north-central Texas toward the ArkLaTex, and the environment waiting for them is very potent. We’re talking 4000+ J/kg of MLCAPE with 50 to 60+ knot deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates.

That’s the kind of atmosphere that produces very large to giant hail, two to four inches or more, with the strongest supercells. A tornado threat exists as well, though low-level shear isn’t screaming, so it’s more of an “any supercell that gets its act together could produce” situation rather than a high-end tornado setup.

Further east across the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South, the atmosphere is trying to recover from overnight convection.

A boundary left behind should lift north through the day, and as instability rebuilds, multiple rounds of supercells and multicell clusters look likely by evening. Large hail, widespread damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all on the table across that region. The Tennessee Valley gets less instability to work with but isn’t completely off the hook by late afternoon.

Busy day from Texas to the Mid-South. Stay weather aware, especially this afternoon into tonight.

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The Setup

A warm front will orient northwest to southeast across central and southeast Oklahoma. Storms should fire along it in the mid-to-late afternoon hours and go supercellular quickly. Giant hail and tornadoes are both real threats, driven by northwest flow aloft, strong low-level shear, and plenty of instability.

Moisture should pool along and near the warm front, which does two important things: it lowers cloud bases and adds extra instability compared to the ambient environment around it. Both of those factors favor tornado development. Expect several storms to fire in this regime, though they may become increasingly crowded and higher-precipitation as the day wears on. That transition from discrete supercells to messier storm mode is going to be the key forecast question.

The Chase Reality

The setup is one thing. Actually chasing it is another.

First, the terrain. I don’t know if you know this, but Oklahoma becomes a completely different animal once you cross I-35 heading east and south. The wide-open Plains give way to hills and trees that block your view, limit your escape routes, and turn storm positioning into a guessing game. Southeast Oklahoma is not where any chaser wants to be navigating a tornadic supercell.

Second, it’s a weekend. On a bigger risk. In Oklahoma. Chaser convergence is going to be real today. Every county road will have vehicles on it, and keeping up with cells becomes that much more difficult when you’re sharing the road with half the chasing community. It’s not that more people interested in weather is a bad thing. It’s just a logistical reality that anyone who chases in Oklahoma can attest to.

The Plan

Get out early. Stay flexible. Let the atmosphere show its hand before committing. We’ll have the live stream up and be reporting from the field sometime just after lunch. The environment supports a significant severe weather day. How the chase plays out is a separate question.

See you out there.

1. This Afternoon

SO YOU’RE SAYING THERE’S A CHANCE?

Yes. Sort of. Kind of. If you squint.

Moisture is returning north over the next day with a weak dryline pattern setting up across the Panhandles. This isn’t the kind of moisture that keeps me up at night. But there might be just enough to squeeze out a couple of higher-based storms if localized dryline convergence and mixing can muscle past a strong cap.

If something does fire, hail and maybe damaging winds would be the threats. Marginal in every sense of the word. This is the atmosphere doing the bare minimum and seeing if anyone notices.

Today on the social media profiles, I nerded out on why these setups struggle in regard to tomorrow, but it also applies to today. When 850mb winds blow hot and dry from the west and the dryline orients southwest to northeast, updrafts have to fight through a wall of dry air just to exist. The storms that do try tend to look like pencil-thin towers clawing for survival before the cap wins by sunset. It’s not impossible. It’s just not a setup that gets me reaching for my car keys.

2. Tomorrow Looks Like Last Week

I promise this isn’t a copy and paste from last week. I totally didn’t. But Mother Nature absolutely did.

Thursday’s setup is basically last Friday’s forecast wearing a different hat. Dryline across Oklahoma and Texas, cold front pushing south through the Central Plains. Storms will fire along the front from southeast Nebraska into eastern Kansas. That’s a lock. Big hail and damaging winds are the sure bets there.

But here’s where Thursday gets interesting, and where it separates from Wednesday by a mile. The ingredients along the dryline are high-end. If a storm can fire off that boundary, it would be very isolated in an environment that favors tornadoes, giant hail, and damaging winds. The SPC has introduced a 2% CIG 1 hatch risk, basically meaning tornadoes aren’t expected but if one were to happen it’d probably be strong. I’ve been waiting my whole life for that kind of an outlook.

The problem though? Most models remain dry on the dryline. The cap is weak at peak heating, sitting right on a knife’s edge, but weak and gone are two very different things. The jet stream energy is once again tracking further north, which sounds familiar because we watched this exact movie last Friday. Storms struggled to fire on the dryline that day while the cold front did all the work.

The question I’m asking myself is whether it’s worth the drive east. Eight or nine hours in a car is a big commitment for a dryline that might not fire. The cold front will produce regardless, but that’s not the kind of day that justifies the gas money and time off of work. But if that dryline fires…

Most likely scenario: a rerun of last week. Storms struggle on the dryline, the cold front puts on the show, and it’s a very active severe weather day that isn’t necessarily a great chase day. But with ingredients this good sitting behind a cap this thin, I’m not ruling anything out yet.

Friday could bring additional storms, but odds favor the front sweeping through and pushing the action east of our chase range.

Stay tuned. Maybe Mother Nature could finally surprise us and write a new script this time.

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3. The Weekend

We’re going to be out this weekend it seems in Oklahoma/S Kansas and even Texas. Another system approaches from the west with a more southerly track, which should allow for more of a traditional severe weather threat to materialize. I’ll try to bring you another newsletter Friday with more details on those risks.

1)Groundhog Day for Storms

I’ll be honest. My biggest debate this morning wasn’t the target area. It was whether I should just copy and paste yesterday’s forecast, add “but a little further east,” and hit publish.

Instead, let me put some actual effort into this.

Morning soundings confirmed what we already suspected: steep lapse rates aloft, 7.5 to 8 degrees per kilometer in the 700-500mb layer, sitting on top of a very moist return-flow airmass. That’s an angry atmosphere, and it’s going to go off.

Round one starts early. Storms will develop near the dryline by mid-afternoon and go supercellular out of the gate. The stronger updrafts will be capable of large to very large hail initially, with all hazards coming into play as storms mature. This is the window where individual cells are most impressive and most dangerous.

Round two fires in the afternoon as additional storms join the party. Here’s where the forecast gets familiar: those new storms will favor clustering and upscale growth, likely merging into bands and linear segments by evening. The hodographs are partly to blame. Forecast soundings show somewhat limited low-level wind profiles with a veer-back-veer signature, which is the atmosphere’s way of nudging storms toward messy mode rather than keeping them discrete.

The tornado question is the same one it’s been all week: storm mode. The threat is there and it’s elevated, not zero. Residual outflow from overnight convection pushing into the Ozarks could enhance low-level shear later today, which would be a boost. But whether we see tornadoes largely depends on whether storms can maintain supercell structure before the inevitable march toward linear chaos.

The sure bets remain the same. Large hail with early supercells, damaging winds as things organize, and a long afternoon-into-evening event that demands attention if you’re in the path.

If yesterday’s forecast sounded a lot like this, that’s because the atmosphere is running the same playbook with a slight geographic shift. Sometimes the sky isn’t that creative either.

Packed. Ready. Let’s Go Storm Chasing.

Yesterday brought a multi-state tornado outbreak, and the atmosphere isn’t finished. Today sets up another busy round of severe weather across the Plains, and I’ll be out live chasing it this afternoon.

The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting an area from Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas for an enhanced risk. Modest height falls across the central to southern Plains combined with convergence along the dryline should be enough to get storms going. Strong heating through the afternoon will erode the capping, and by mid-afternoon, we should see storms firing along the dryline in Oklahoma and points north and south.

What they fire into is an impressive airmass. We’re looking at 2500 to 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE, which means the atmosphere is extremely unstable and ready to fuel powerful updrafts. Combine that with elongated hodographs and you have an environment that strongly favors supercells. The SPC increased their hail and hail-intensity highlights this morning for good reason. Large to giant hail is a confident bet today with any sustained supercell.

This is where it gets interesting, and where I’ll be paying the closest attention. The strength of low-level shear during the early evening remains the biggest question mark, and that’s exactly the window when the tornado risk could peak. One big key for how today goes is if a dominant supercell can separate itself from the pack. Storm interactions can help spin up tornadoes, but there’s a tipping point. Too many powerful storms firing at once and they start competing for the same air and space. It’s like putting five elite athletes on one lane of a track.

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The shear profile overall looks favorable for supercells and a tornado or two is on the table. If a storm can carve out its own territory along the dryline and tap into strengthening low-level shear as the evening progresses, that’s the scenario where today’s tornado potential gets realized.

Even if the tornado threat stays on the lower end, today is not a day to shrug off. Large hail, potentially giant, and damaging winds are going to be the main story from this afternoon well into the overnight hours. The instability alone guarantees that any storm that matures will be capable of producing significant severe weather.

I’ll be positioning along the dryline in Oklahoma this afternoon, watching for initiation and looking for that one storm that starts to separate and organize. If it happens, that’s where I’ll be pointing the car. Come ride along on the live stream later today.

Set Your Reminder

1. Monday and Tuesday

Monday is the deep breath before the week gets loud. A few storms could fire, and anything that does will probably be severe, but the setup is stuck awkwardly between active systems to the west and east. That middle ground is usually where storms go to not exist. We’ll be watching, but Monday isn’t the story.

Tuesday is.

A wave ejects in the early to mid-afternoon, dragging plentiful shear behind it, and it’s walking into an atmosphere that’s ready to explode. We’re talking extreme instability in some areas, dewpoints near 70, and very little capping to slow things down. The fuel is there. The trigger is there.

So what’s the concern? Storm mode. Shear doesn’t start off strong, with 0-3km storm-relative helicity below 100 initially, though it increases into the evening. With lower cloud bases and 0-6km shear above 35 knots, my bet is we see a mixed bag of HP supercells and more linear segments. That means a lot of storms producing large hail and damaging winds with an elevated-to-low tornado threat. It’s a big day. It’s just not a clean day.

2. Wednesday and Thursday

Wednesday shares a lot of DNA with Tuesday but turns the shear dial up. A dryline sharpens over the south-central Plains with plenty of instability and stronger environmental wind shear, 0-6km values near and above 50 knots as storms form. Helicity starts unimpressive but climbs substantially by the evening, with 0-1km SRH values over 100 m²/s² becoming common. That’s an environment that can support supercells and tornadoes.

The enemy for storm chasing is the same as Tuesday: storm mode. Wonky wind profiles early on could push storms into clusters or lines before the shear really gets cooking. Still, Wednesday is shaping up to be another busy severe weather day, potentially the more dangerous of the two.

Thursday is the palette cleanser. We’re back in transition between systems. The dryline won’t be sharp, moisture will be retreating westward most of the day, and convergence along the gradient will be pretty contained. My guess? Sparse storms, late in the day, further south in the I-20 corridor. Not my favorite area to chase personally, and the environment overall just isn’t giving much. Think of Thursday as the week catching its breath.

3. Friday

Then comes Friday. And I need you to pay attention to this one.

Both the GFS and Euro are showing a strong system emerging onto the Plains by Friday afternoon. Sharp dryline. Strong 850mb winds. Backed surface flow. If you know what those ingredients mean together, you already feel the hair on your arms standing up. This is a tornado setup.

How high-end? Potentially very. But there’s a catch, and it’s an important one. The wave timing may not cooperate and that has made many a ‘favorable-looking day’ at this range turn to nothing by the day of. Neither the Euro nor the GFS is producing much precipitation along the dryline across Oklahoma or Texas, with the action favoring Kansas instead. That’s the kind of detail that can be the difference between a historic day and a highly localized one. We’ll need to see what the convection-allowing models do with this before making any big calls.

Here’s the bottom line: there’s a real chance Friday generates some significant risk headlines if storms look likely up and down the dryline. Keep it in the back of your mind as we work through the earlier days this week. I’ll have more on Friday across our social media, and YouTube members will get a dedicated forecast video as we get closer.

4. Our First Twister of the Year

It wasn’t much, but here is the biggest ‘highlight’ of my first day out yesterday near Las Vegas, NM, where we watched a supercell quickly ramp up and produce a tornado in rapid succession before it dissipated and we had a multicell slop-fest the rest of the day.

Las Vegas is a tornado hotbed that has been historically undercounted, and it’s not hard to understand why. The terrain east of town has few roads and even fewer people. Unless you’re a storm chaser purposefully looking for a tornado out here, nobody’s reporting one. Unlike the DCVZ, most of the tornadoes that form in this area are supercellular in nature, which makes the undercount even more frustrating because these aren’t random spin-ups. They’re real storms doing real things with no one watching.

I’ve now seen a tornado in this area every year for the last four years running. And given how early in the calendar this one occurred, I wouldn’t be surprised if I add another before the year is out.

1. Today: Wind/Hail, Low Risk

Yesterday brought big hail and damaging winds, and the atmosphere isn’t done yet. I’m genuinely curious what storms can pull off today because the ingredients are there, just not all in the same place.

Two zones to watch. First, a stalled front draped along the OK/KS border stretching into southern Missouri on one end and Colorado on the other. Moisture is more plentiful here, but so are the storms, which means competition for the fuel. The strongest cells should still produce damaging winds and large hail. Not seeing much of a tornado threat again today. The theme of the past few days has been lots of storms but few that had strong rotation, today should continue that trend though the ingredients are ever so slightly better than yesterday.

Second, the dryline out across the southern High Plains. Moisture is still lacking but keeps inching up, enough to let storms flex a little harder than they have been. Damaging winds and maybe some near-severe hail across the Panhandles back into New Mexico. Standard low-end risk territory. Nothing that gets a chaser’s blood pumping, but exactly the kind of day that keeps weather-aware people weather-aware.

2. The Weekend…And Beyond!

Now here’s where I start leaning forward in my chair.

Saturday gets busy. A wave approaches the region with weak capping, which is basically the atmosphere leaving the door wide open. Storms will fire across eastern New Mexico and further east, especially off the caprock and into the open warm sector. Moisture is there. Shear is there. The problem? Storms will know it too, and when everybody shows up to the party at once, they start crowding each other out. Expect a growing complex by evening, but before that messy phase, large hail and damaging winds are a sure bet. And if a robust supercell can get going before the crowd arrives, storm interactions could briefly spin up a low-level mesocyclone. A rogue tornado isn’t out of the question.

Sunday is the weird kid in the middle. The environment actually favors severe storms with anything that forms, but the atmosphere might not cooperate on the “forming” part. We’re stuck in an awkward gap between a departing wave to the east and a more potent one to the west. Hostile upper levels could keep storm coverage frustratingly low. It’s the meteorological equivalent of having all the groceries but no stove.

Monday and Tuesday are the ones I’m circling. Large hail and damaging winds are locked in, but the tornado risk starts climbing. The system moving in is one of the strongest we’ve seen this spring, and it’s going to fuel a powerful low-level jet. Chasers know what that means. Strong low-level jets tend to set the table for more tornadic setups. But the details that make or break a tornado day are still TBD. I’ll have a lot more to say about early next week as we get closer.

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1. Today’s Threat

April on the Southern Plains. Storms everywhere, nothing to fall in love with as a storm chaser most likely. That’s today.

From the Rio Grande up through Oklahoma and into the Midwest, storms will fire by 3-4 p.m. and crowd together early before a front pushes through and builds a stout line heading into tonight. This is the kind of day where the atmosphere checks every box on a technical level but the storm mode keeps things from getting too interesting.

Instability is moderate with CAPE values of 2000-2500 j/kg common at peak heating, and 0-6km bulk shear in the 30-40kt range. Just enough of both for robust severe storms. Shear is good enough that you could convince me a couple of storms might rotate early on. That early window is where the biggest hail lives and where a low tornado risk sneaks in.

While the severe weather environment is favorable, the tornado parameters aren’t really there. 3CAPE values are sitting below 100 j/kg and 0-1km SRH is generally well below 100 m2/s2 across the region. Those two values are the ones that make storm chasers lean forward in their chair if they are higher, and today they’re just not there. It’s April, though, and flukes happen. I’ve learned to never say never in this month.

As the evening wears on, the threat shifts to damaging winds as the line takes over. That’s the main headline for most of you, especially overnight.

This is unlikely to be a day we can all recall from memory as a day of note this season, but it’s a day worth paying attention to if storms are heading your way. It could be a loud night at the very least.

2. A Look Into The Extended

Most, if not all, of next week will be remarkably quiet across the SC Plains back into the Southwest as ridging in the west wins out again for a period of time. But, it is now Spring and things do not stay static for long this time of year.

By the weekend, SW flow aloft will begin to take shape over the SC Plains with the subtropical jet and polar jet phasing over the middle of the country. I’ll just be honest, models aren’t quite sure what to make of this pattern on th severe weather side yet, and neither do I.

But given the time of year this is a stormy pattern at the very least. How stormy/how severe is the question we’ll probably need a few more days of model data for. As of last night the Euro was still pretty aggressive on rain but not on severe weather while the GFS really liked the idea of more severe storms.

Stay tuned!

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1. Threat Centers on W. OK Today

Okay, now we’re talking. After yesterday’s hail/wind event, today feels like an atmosphere on a new level, and I could see it the moment I pulled up the data this morning.

This is a real severe weather day. Hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, the full menu is on the table. Every single one of those threats comes with caveats, but with a strong wave arriving late this afternoon and a ton of storms expected across the South Central Plains, severe weather reports are basically inevitable. It’s not a question of if, just how many.

Storms should start firing an hour or so on either side of 4 p.m. and move east/north, likely clustering into a line with time. Here’s how the threats evolve: the early storms bring the biggest hail danger. As they line out, damaging winds take over as the main player. Cloud bases will start high but lower toward sunset, and that’s when the tornado risk really picks up. If a more mature QLCS gets going, that tornado threat could carry into the overnight hours too.

One more thing. It’s going to feel gloomy all day with thick high clouds hanging around, and your phone is probably going to be busy with warnings. A lot of people are going to feel like they’re “in on the action” today. But let me put it in perspective: this is a day you adjust your plans around the weather, not a day the weather cancels your plans. Stay aware, stay flexible, and you’ll be fine.

1. Today’s Setup

I’ve been chasing storms for over 20 years, and there’s a category of day that I just kind of shrug my shoulders at. Today is that day.

It’s the textbook Plains setup. Hail, wind, a bunch of storms firing off by late afternoon. If you asked me to draw it on a whiteboard, I’d probably sketch something almost identical to what’s happening right now. Moisture is creeping up a little from yesterday but still on the low end of useful. A system moving in will steepen lapse rates and add lift, and that’s going to be just enough to get things going.

The wind fields are weak with the main system still well to the west, so storm organization is going to be a struggle. Could a transient supercell sneak in? Sure. But the most likely storm mode today is what I lovingly call blobby wind bags with some hail mixed in early. If the low levels mix out, you’re looking at damaging gusts near 70 mph in spots. That’s not nothing.

I have never once loaded up the car with vigor for a setup like this. But that’s a chaser problem, not a you problem. If you’re in the path, have a plan. We’ve all been through days like this before. Just respect it and move on with your evening.

2. Tomorrow

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the best thing I can say is it looks like today just with better ingredients from top to bottom. Slightly better moisture, much stronger shear, slightly higher instability.

This will still lead, thanks to stronger lift as well, to a linear complex with time. We may also see initial supercells for a brief window, depending on how strong the lift is when it arrives. But the stronger shear, especially at low levels, may lead to at least a low tornado threat tomorrow with storms near and after dark.

This could be twisters of the QLCS variety, so they’ll be quick spin-up things.

Listen, a marginal risk of severe storms is still a severe risk. But I can’t help it. Look at these little storms. So full of potential and energy and vigor and…

Ok, I’m not sure where I was going with that either.

Here’s what’s actually happening: damaging winds are possible today from dry thunderstorms. These storms form very high up in the atmosphere, and most of the rain evaporates before it ever hits the ground. That can produce dry microbursts, basically a sudden punch of wind hitting the surface with nothing to show for it rain wise.

It’s a genuinely cool atmospheric trick. Right up until you’re standing outside in 60mph gusts, watching your neighbor’s trampoline achieve flight as dust fills the scene.

This threat peaks late afternoon and fades at sunset. More classic setups are coming in the next few weeks. Consider this one the opening act.

2. Rest of the Week

I’m genuinely tempted to chase both Wednesday and Friday this week, though there’s a voice in the back of my head saying “don’t burn yourself out before June.” We’ll see who wins that argument.

Wednesday is the day that has my attention. A dryline sets up across the western parts of the region as an upper storm system moves overhead, and that should weaken the cap enough for several storms to fire in a supercell-friendly environment. The ingredients for big hail are all there: solid lapse rates, plenty of instability in the hail growth zone. Wednesday afternoon could be a classic early spring hail festival. Later in the evening, storms will line out along a surging cold front with damaging winds, and there’s at least a low tornado threat as low-level shear cranks up. I’m not convinced this is a big tornado day, but that early supercell window before things go linear? That’s the part I want to be out for.

Friday is the next candidate, but I’m less confident. Wednesday’s cold front will push through and could leave us short on moisture, plus capping could be an issue. The upper system tracks further north, which limits the overall lift. Storms should still manage to form in a supercell-favorable environment, possibly high-based. Another cold front surge in the evening is likely to organize things into a line again, but the low-level shear is weaker, so the tornado threat drops another notch.

In between, Tuesday and Thursday both carry lower-end severe risks with damaging winds and hail possible. Not chase days for me, but worth watching if you’re in the path.

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Then you stand in front of one, and none of it looks like the diagram.

That’s the part nobody warns you about. I’ve been chasing for over 20 years, and I still have moments where I’m staring at a storm trying to reconcile what I’m seeing with what I know is supposed to be there. It happens to us all, weather breaks every rule at least once.

Supercells are structurally consistent in theory and absolutely chaotic in practice. The bones are always the same. The skin is different every single time.

So instead of walking you through a single diagram, I want to show you three real supercells. Three storms I was standing in front of. Each one looks completely different from the others, and that’s exactly the point. Once you can identify the same anatomy across storms that look nothing alike, you’re seeing what chasers see.

But first, the one thing you need to be able to spot before anything else makes sense.

The Updraft: Learn This First, Everything Else Follows

I cannot overstate how much of storm chasing comes down to watching the updraft. It’s the engine of the storm. It’s the part that tells you what’s about to happen next. If you can find the updraft, you can start reading everything else around it.

So what does it actually look like? Sometimes it looks like a dark cloud mass directly overhead, the kind that makes you instinctively look up and think “that’s not friendly.” Sometimes it looks like a towering cumulus column punching into the sky, visible from 50 miles away. And sometimes it looks like a lowered base sitting on the horizon, looking dense and organized and very much alive.

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Three very different visuals, same feature. Find the updraft and you’ve found the storm’s center of gravity. Everything else orients around it.

Storm #1: The Elegant One (Low-Precipitation Supercell)

I’m looking west at this storm, which is the classic chase position. And this one is gorgeous. Clean structure, easy to read. If supercells had a beauty pageant, this one would be a finalist.

The updraft is right there in front of me. And since I’m looking west, the forward flank downdraft is off to the right. That’s your rain and hail core, where most of the practical damage from a supercell happens. In this case, it’s almost transparent. This is a low-precipitation supercell, which means the forward flank isn’t dumping much rain. You can practically see through it. LP supercells are a photographer’s dream for exactly this reason.

Below the updraft, there’s a subtle lowered area. That’s the wall cloud. It doesn’t look dramatic here, but it’s rotating. I watched air rising into it, feeding the updraft above. Behind the wall cloud, on the west side, the rear flank downdraft is working its way around the mesocyclone toward the east side.

There’s no obvious inflow tail on this storm, but look at the air near the top of the updraft. You can see it streaming in and wrapping around the base. That’s inflow. The storm is pulling air into itself like it’s breathing.

And here’s the thing about this particular storm: it’s about to produce a tornado. Right after this moment, a funnel began forming. Rising motion spiraling up into the base. The base itself is starting to look smoother, more laminar. That smoothness is a sign. When the bottom of a storm starts looking polished instead of ragged where there’s a lot of motion, it usually means rotation is tightening. I’ve learned to pay very close attention when that transition happens.

This storm is textbook. You can see every feature, label every part. Which is great, because the next one is going to be less easy.

Storm #2: The Brawler (Classic Supercell)

I’m looking northwest at this storm and it is a completely different animal. If Storm #1 was elegant, this one showed up looking for a fight.

The updraft is there, but the whole scene around it is busier, messier, more aggressive. Off to the right, the forward flank downdraft is dark. Really dark. That rain and hail core is loaded and it looks menacing even from a distance. Classic supercell behavior.

Now here’s where it gets interesting. There’s a prominent wall cloud hanging below the updraft base, clearly lowered and clearly rotating. Behind it, the rear flank downdraft is surging. I can see a shelf cloud being pushed outward on the left side of the lowered area, where the cloud slants away from the precipitation. That shelf is the RFD making its presence known, physically shoving air outward as it wraps around.

In the middle of all this, rotation. Not dramatic, not photogenic, but visible. I can see dust getting kicked up near the surface as the rear flank downdraft curls around. And the wheat in the foreground? Blowing straight into the storm. That’s inflow at the surface, feeding the updraft, keeping the whole machine running.

This storm also produced a tornado after this moment. But I want you to notice something: when you see a dark, surging RFD wrapping behind a visible wall cloud like this, the tornado that follows is almost always rain-wrapped. Nine times out of ten. That gorgeous structure you’re watching is about to disappear behind a curtain of rain, and whatever happens next, you’re not going to see it. That’s exactly what happened here.

Just because a storm is classic now doesn’t mean it’ll stay that way. Supercells change their appearance, sometimes many times over their life-cycles.

Two storms, two tornadoes, two completely different visual experiences. And we’ve still got one more.

Storm #3: The Chaos Monster (High-Precipitation Supercell)

This storm looks nothing like the first two. Absolutely nothing. If I showed you all three side by side, you might not believe they share the same anatomy. This is a high-precipitation supercell, and it is pandemonium.

The updraft is massive. It’s right in front of me, enormous and imposing, the kind of storm that makes the sky feel like it’s lowering onto you. The forward flank downdraft? It’s back there somewhere, buried behind layers of rain and murk. Hard to see, hard to separate from the rest of the storm. HP supercells don’t give you clean lines between features. Everything bleeds together.

The rear flank downdraft is the wildest part. There’s a glowing area of precipitation that marks it, but there’s also this dark mass moving from right to left. That’s the RFD surging around the mesocyclone. And because this is an HP storm, the tornadic area is already being swallowed by rain.

The wall cloud? It was there. Then it wasn’t. The rain just ate it. Above me, a rear flank downdraft shelf cloud is pushing outward, but it’s not well-defined because honestly, nothing about this storm is well-defined. To the right, inflow is still feeding in, and this thing just went completely, hopelessly rain-wrapped.

If there’s a tornado in there, and the storm absolutely has the structure to produce one, nobody is seeing it. This is the kind of storm where you have to trust your radar and your instincts, because your eyes aren’t going to help you.

You Can Do This

Three supercells. Same parts list. Completely different presentations. That’s the reality of reading storms in the field. The diagrams give you vocabulary. The real world gives you a thousand variations on the same theme and asks you to figure it out in real time while the wind is picking up and the sky is turning green.

I love it. Every single time.

The more storms you watch, the faster you’ll start recognizing the updraft, the downdrafts, the inflow, the rotation. And once those pieces click, you stop seeing a wall of chaos and start seeing a machine with moving parts. It doesn’t get less awe-inspiring when you understand it. If anything, it gets more so. Knowing what you’re looking at makes the spectacle bigger, not smaller.

Want to see all three storms in motion? The full video walkthrough is above, where I point out every feature in real time as the storms evolve.

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Am I oversimplifying? Yeah, I am. Is this a framework of a technique every storm chaser on planet earth uses? Yes, yes it is.

The thing nobody tells you about severe weather forecasting is that the baseline version of it is shockingly accessible. You’re not going to come out of this as a meteorologist. You’re not going to nail a tornado forecast on your first try. But you are going to look at a map of the United States and know — with actual reasoning behind it — where the action is most likely to occur today. That’s more than most people ever get to.

Here’s the whole process, start to finish.

1. Start Where the Pros Start: The Storm Prediction Center Outlook

Before you touch a single model or chart, go to the Storm Prediction Center’s Day 1 Outlook (spc.noaa.gov). This is where NOAA’s actual severe weather forecasters lay out where they think the risk is today — highlighted right on the map with a color-coded scale.

You’ll see categories from “General Thunderstorms” up through “Marginal,” “Slight,” “Enhanced,” “Moderate,” and “High.” You can also toggle between tornado, hail, and wind risk individually. Don’t get hung up on what the exact percentages mean right now. Honestly, that rabbit hole goes deep and the definitions shift depending on who you ask. Just know: brighter colors, bigger risk. That’s your starting zone.

This is your “where should I even be looking?” answer. Bookmark it. It’s your first click every single day during storm season.

Sidenote: You don’t actually know more than the folks at the SPC. Trust me. They’re smarter than you when it comes to severe storms in every way.

2. See Where Storms Actually Form: HRRR Reflectivity + Updraft Helicity

Now head to a modeling site. We recommend either Pivotal Weather (pivotalweather.com) or the WeatherFront App. There are a bunch of great model-viewing sites out there, but Pivotal is clean and free and what a lot of chasers use daily.

You’re going to pull up the HRRR model — that’s the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, and it updates every hour, which means it’s the closest thing to a real-time storm simulator you’re going to get. Find the product called “Reflectivity + Updraft Helicity.”

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Here’s what you’re looking at: The reflectivity shows you where storms are predicted to form. Those bright blobs are thunderstorms on the model. But the real magic is the updraft helicity — those little streaks running through the storm cells. When you see a streak, the model is saying this storm is spinning. That’s your signal for a potential supercell.

One important caveat: the HRRR changes dramatically through the day. A morning run might show storms in a completely different spot than the afternoon run. That’s normal. You’re looking for trends and general areas, not GPS coordinates.

3. Find the Rotation: 0-3km Updraft Helicity

Stay on Pivotal Weather and switch to the “Updraft Helicity 0–3 km” product. This one zooms in on what’s happening in the lower atmosphere specifically.

Those streaks you see here? The model is projecting low-level rotation — the kind that’s directly tied to mesocyclones and, eventually, tornadoes. Compare this to the reflectivity chart you just looked at. If the storms from chart #2 are discrete, individual cells (not a big squall line) and they’re showing strong low-level vorticity streaks here, you’re looking at a setup that could produce serious weather. You can get serious weather with lines for the record as well, but the forecasting there gets a little trickier and we’re not touching that with a 9 foot pole just yet (but soon).

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What you are doing is building a picture now. SPC told you the general area. The HRRR told you where storms form. This chart is telling you which of those storms might be doing something especially dangerous. Easy enough so far?

4. Overlay the Environment: Supercell Composite + Significant Tornado Parameter

Here’s where you start stacking information. Pull up the Supercell Composite (SCP) chart — same site, same model. This shows you where the overall atmospheric environment is most favorable for supercell thunderstorms. Where you see the highest values (brightest colors on the map), that’s where conditions are most primed. SCP is not perfect, but this is a basic instruction so just keep in mind it does have some practical limitations.

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Now overlay that mentally with where your storms were forming in charts 2 and 3. Storms forming in the area with the highest supercell composite values? That’s your bullseye for the most significant severe weather of the day.

For tornadoes specifically, add one more layer: the Significant Tornado Parameter (STP). Find where the strongest 0–3 km vorticity tracks line up with the highest STP values. Where those two agree, that’s your best bet for tornado potential. Chasers call this “target selection” — and these four charts are genuinely how most of us start narrowing it down (even if we don’t want to admit it).

5. Confirm It With a Sounding (It’s Easier Than It Looks)

This is the one that scares people off, and it shouldn’t. Go back to that Supercell Composite map and click directly on the area you’ve been zeroing in on. It’ll pull up a sounding — a vertical profile of the atmosphere at that point.

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It looks like another language. It kind of is. But you only need to check four things:

Temperature-Dewpoint Spread: Find the temperature line and the dewpoint line. Subtract the dewpoint from the temperature. If the difference is 20°F or less, cloud bases will be low enough that tornadoes are very much on the table. Between 20–30°F, you’re looking at potentially photogenic supercells with large hail and strong winds. Above 30°F, storms can still be severe, but they’ll tend to be higher-based and less likely to produce tornadoes.

LCL and LFC Separation: Find these two values (they’ll be labeled). You want them close together. When they’re tight, it means the atmosphere is uncapped — storms can fire easily and sustain themselves. When there’s a big gap, storms struggle to get going and stay going.

Effective Storm-Relative Helicity (SRH): Find this value and check it against the scale provided. Higher is better for organized, rotating storms. Tornadoes become more likely at values of over 150 m2/s2. Simple as that.

MLCAPE (Mixed-Layer Convective Available Potential Energy): This tells you how much fuel is in the atmosphere. Think of it as the storm’s energy budget. There are standard categories from “weak” through “extreme”. Ideally I like at least 1500 j/kg MLCAPE for storm chasing but if you are looking for severe weather near your home, 500 j/kg or more is notable.

Here is where you can find each of these on WeatherFront:

That’s it. You now have a target area with environmental confirmation. You know where storms are forming, which ones might rotate, and whether the atmosphere can support something significant.

Watch the full video about this technique here:

Put it all together and this is genuinely the process: SPC narrows the region, the model charts identify specific storms and rotation, the composite parameters tell you where the environment is most volatile, and the sounding confirms the details. Most chasers you see on YouTube did some version of this exact workflow before they ever left their driveway.

Is this a perfect workflow? No. Is it the full picture? Not even close — there are layers upon layers of nuance that take years to develop a feel for. But you now have a legitimate foundation to build off of. You can look at a forecast day and form your own opinion about what’s going to happen and where. Test it out, and notice patterns and trends and build upon this foundation to improve your own forecasts.

And, as always, trust the experts at the NWS and SPC when it comes to life-saving actions.

Weather is for everybody. That includes you.

I prepared this outlook before the tornadoes at the start of March, but I haven’t had to change much because the activity has been well within what I expected for the year thus far. Hopefully, I can continue to look and feel smart through the spring.

Editor’s Note: This is the text version of our seasonal forecast for storm chasing. I initially released this to our YouTube channel members as a video over a month ago. Click here to join.

Executive Summary

Every year around this time, I sit down with months of data — climate models, analog years, sea surface temperatures, drought maps, jet stream forecasts — and try to answer a question that the atmosphere doesn’t want answered: what kind of tornado season are we in for?

It’s an important exercise for someone like me who needs a framework to guide decision-making when I take valuable PTO to chase vs. when I should save that time off for the next setup.

This year, the data is telling a surprisingly coherent story. An ENSO transition is underway, the Gulf of Mexico remains above average (at or near its 2023 peaks), and a stubborn upper-level ridge is threatening to sit on top of or just west of Tornado Alley during the months that matter most. But buried underneath the big-picture signals, there are hints of a late-season pattern shift that could make the back half of this season genuinely interesting — if you know where to look and you’re willing to wait for it.

What follows is my full breakdown: the forces shaping the season, what each month is likely to bring, where the action will be (and where it won’t), and how I’m planning to approach chase season. Spoiler: Patience is going to be a virtue this year.

What’s Driving This Season

Three forces are working against us early on, and one big wildcard could rescue the back half.

The ENSO Transition. We’re coming out of La Niña right now, with the Niño 3.4 index sitting near -0.8°C. But underneath the surface, things are changing fast. Massive Kelvin wave activity in the western Pacific is pushing warm water eastward, and the subsurface warming trend is accelerating. I was expecting the CPC to get more aggressive with their El Niño calls and I wasn’t disappointed. I think the transition is happening fast and may be complete by summer. That transition is the single most important variable for how this season ends.

The Gulf of Mexico. Gulf SSTs are currently running a whopping +1.5°C above normal or so! The Gulf cooled substantially through late January but have since rebounded with record warmth. When compared to a recent analog year of 2023, you’ll see the Gulf is pretty comparable right now, but the key will be where it goes from here. Models hint at a couple of strong fronts passing through the Gulf in the next week — which will cool it some. Most likely it will end up above average but perhaps not to the scale of 2023, when record-warm Gulf temperatures fueled that insane March 31 outbreak. If the Gulf remains near record warm, I will get pretty bullish about April — but models have had those pretty significant frontal intrusions which may put a cap on what the Gulf can reasonably warm to. Still, it’s well above average which means when we get systems moving into the Plains they won’t struggle with moisture from the south.

The Drought. D2 through D4 drought covers nearly the entire southern Plains, Gulf States, and Deep South. CPC’s seasonal drought outlook shows it persisting through at least the end of April. Dry soils mean less evapotranspiration, which means the boundary layer becomes almost entirely dependent on direct Gulf moisture return, which is a bigger (but not impossible) ask. With the hot/dry air over the high terrain of New Mexico up through Montana, the direct result becomes strong capping (which we’ve already seen), steep lapse rates (again yep), and an atmosphere that produces several ‘loaded gun’ setups throughout the Spring.

The Ridge. Climate models have tended to show continued ridging over the western/central U.S. through at least April, with positive height anomalies easing in May and June. That’s a monster cap and area of sinking air sitting right on top of Tornado Alley during what should be the ramp-up month. We’re seeing that ridge build right now over the Southwest. It’ll be a factor much of the Spring. Models have the ridge shifting west by May, partially opening the door, and relaxing significantly by June. That progression is the roadmap for the season.

Month by Month

Rest of March: Mixed Signals

The pattern overall looks like a strong ridge builds in with lots of cold air to the east and repeated frontal intrusions into the Gulf. This will make things very difficult in terms of getting severe storms across the country until at least March 22-23, if not longer. Any real activity probably shifted into the Southeast US and later in the month from here to be sure. We will end at/near average if things don’t pick up in a big way.

April: Patience Required

The ridge is at peak strength over Tornado Alley in April, according to climate models. My read right now is that most of April will feel empty. But here’s the thing — multiple analog years produced a notable burst in late April with multiple days of solid chasing occurring as the ridge breaks down and a trough punches through. In fact, one analog year (2009) produced a high risk tornado outbreak in late April! I will chase in this month most likely, but I’m going to be patient and wait for the Southern Plains to get active to be sure.

May: The Slog

This is where the season gets frustrating/interesting/a bit of both. Every analog year shows a below-average May but not an entirely quiet May. The subtropical jet brings in those 30-knot 500mb winds with 15-knot 850s — enough shear to make you say “well, maybe” but not enough to organize anything impressive. You’ll see supercells initiate off the dryline, struggle with the cap for hours, and then either gust out or produce a brief spin-up before dying. If you chased in 2023, you know this feeling intimately. I think the pace of chase days will pick up dramatically as the month goes on with near daily chasing by the end of the month. Nothing BIG RISK, but just a slow and steady drumbeat day after day. I like those patterns personally as they make for productive storm chasing.

June: The Rescue Month

This is where it gets interesting. Every analog year shows above-average June tornado activity. As El Niño establishes, the subtropical jet energizes, the ridge relaxes, and moisture return from the Gulf finally has a flow regime it can work with long-term. The geographic sweet spot shifts to the High Plains and central Plains — think an L-shaped corridor from eastern New Mexico/Panhandles up through southeast Wyoming and east into Nebraska. If the ENSO transition cooperates, expect a sustained burst of chase-worthy activity with the potential for a big day or three in there.

July: The Overlooked Extension

Here’s something most seasonal outlooks miss: July was above average for tornadoes in every single analog year. Some years it even surpassed April in total activity. The season doesn’t end on June 30. If El Niño is humming by midsummer, northern Plains supercells could extend the window well into July.

An Important Sidebar: Tornado Intensity

One consistent and notable signal across the analogs: fewer strong and violent tornadoes than normal. One analog year even produced zero EF4/5 tornadoes nationwide. This isn’t random — it’s a function of the subtropical jet regime. You get adequate mid-level shear but weaker low-level jets because deep surface cyclogenesis is suppressed. That combination produces supercells but limits the low-level rotation needed for significant tornadoes. Expect the vast majority of this year’s tornadoes to be EF0–EF1. That doesn’t mean violent tornadoes are impossible, but the physics of flow regimes work against them.

Hot Zones and Cold Zones

🔴 Hot Zone: Nebraska, Northern/Western Kansas, Eastern Colorado, and SE Wyoming

Less drought, favorable positioning on the ridge periphery, and the primary beneficiary of the June–July pattern transition. This is where the season happens in a big way if El Niño delivers.

🔴 Hot Zone: Eastern Oklahoma through the Mid-Mississippi Valley

Early-season QLCS events and embedded supercells when the jet streams through ahead of shortwave energy. I’m thinking April for this region will be more active. The dryline will set up further east than normal, and fire weather on its backside will be epic — very reminiscent of 2009. We’ve already seen this pattern a bit earlier this month.

🔵 Cold Zone: Far Northern Plains (Dakotas)

Last year was a bonanza up here, but this year’s engine is the subtropical jet, not the polar jet. Canada might be active, but the Dakotas are unlikely to repeat 2025’s performance.

⚡ Wildcard: Southern Plains

Some analog years show a concentrated 3–4 day burst here in late May or June — enough to make it look like a hot zone in hindsight. The analog year I’m warming up to (1997) was a big year on the Southern Plains with consistent activity in May and June. If the pattern briefly cooperates and the dryline sets up in its climatological sweet spot, this area could help tip the mood about this chase season as one that was pretty active even if the numbers don’t reflect it totally.

The Chase Season in a Sentence

Be opportunistic early, be patient through May, and be ready to go north and west when June arrives.

The Final Verdict

This is going to be a near average to slightly below average tornado season — but absolutely not a quiet one.

The first half of spring will test your patience as a storm chaser. The second half might reward it. The most likely scenario is a slow start, a steady pickup through May, and a legitimate burst of activity beginning in late May or June as El Niño emerges.

A near-average finish is very much in play if June and July deliver, which is why that category sits at 50%. And the 10% above average? That’s my floor — because it only takes one pattern to lock in for a week to cluster up 200 tornado reports, and I’ve been doing this long enough to never say never. The downside risk is real, though. If the subtropical jet is weaker than anticipated, we may still get a steady stream of chase days but few actual tornadoes in the heart of the season.

Outlook Probability

Above Average (15% or more above normal): 10% chance

Average (Within 15% of normal): 50% chance

Below Average (15% or more below normal): 40% chance

1. Tuesday Severe Threat

Tuesday is going to be busy.

Storms will fire along the dryline, a cold front, and in the open warm sector throughout the day. This is one of those setups where convection will be scattered across a large area, so don’t expect a single clean target. It’s going to be messy, and that’s what spring looks like sometimes.

Moisture gets a little thin out west near the dryline, but wind shear should be enough to get storms organized. Low-level shear isn’t nearly as impressive as late last week, so the tornado threat is lower, but it hasn’t left the building. Boundaries will be all over the place on Tuesday, so any tornado threats may increase in the vicinity of them.

The bigger story for our area is large hail where storms stay discrete, and the potential for things to go linear after dark. That’s when damaging winds take over.

There is uncertainty on two fronts: where exactly the surface features set up, and how much of a cap we’ll deal with across Oklahoma. In plain terms, the details are still sharpening and Tuesday’s outlook could shift. I’ll update as we get closer.

2. Why Do Some Tornadoes Turn Suddenly and Mysteriously?

Deviant tornado motion is one of the most dangerous and least understood phenomena in storm chasing — and it can turn a routine chase day into a life-or-death situation in seconds. In this members-first lesson, we break down two real-world case studies: the lesser-known May 6, 2015 Lake Chickasha tornado and the infamous El Reno tornado. Using hodographs, surface boundaries, and CAPE values, we walk through exactly how to spot the signs that tornadoes could do something completely unexpected.

3. Looking Out a Little Longer

After Tuesday’s system clears out, winter wants one more word with the eastern half of the country.

A ridge looks to build in the west, shoving the jet stream north before diving it south through the Plains. If you’ve been around severe weather long enough, you know what this pattern means: dry. Cold fronts will race through with little to no rain, and more importantly, they’ll shove our moisture south into the Gulf and Caribbean. No moisture, no storm fuel. No storm fuel, no severe weather. Simple math.

The global models agree on the general idea but disagree on the details. The GEFS wants to bring moisture back north sooner. The EPS warms the Plains back up but keeps us locked under dry northwest flow, which looks impressive on a temperature map and produces exactly zero notable severe weather. I’m leaning toward the quieter solution for now, but we’ll see.

The honest truth? A two to three week break from severe weather is fine by me. This year is off to a deadly start, and a pause for everyone to catch their breath isn’t the worst thing in the world.

Pattern could flip back to something more active by the end of the month. Maybe. I’ll believe it when the models stop arguing about it.

Thursday and Friday both carry our first legitimate supercell tornado threats of the year. I’m really only considering chasing Thursday at this point, but even that’s a coin flip for me. The late storm initiation, the long drive, and the very real chance that things aren’t photogenic near the warm front all have me hesitant.

Friday is even more uncertain with storm formation, making it hard to commit to gas money. But after months of watching the Gulf get swept clean and the pattern go dead, just having two days worth REALLY talking about feels like spring finally remembered where it left its keys.

Thursday

Storms likely fire late, maybe not until 5 or 6 p.m., popping just east of the dryline and maturing fast. Large hail tops the threat list, but a tornado risk exists as well, especially early in the event. Low-level shear is solid.

The complication is a slowly advancing warm front with stubborn near-surface stability on its north side that could put a ceiling on what the shear profiles are otherwise screaming about.

Imperfect, but it’s the first real opportunity of the year for a lot of chasers.

Friday

The wilder card. Main energy passes north and west of the warm sector, leaving the question of where storms actually form feeling wide open.

Rising heights, a dryline without much punch, and I’m not loving what I see for afternoon initiation further south. If storms can get going, the tornado and large hail threat will be real, but “if” is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence.

Overnight brings a surging cold front with more of a damaging wind story as storms take shape along it.

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Stay tuned to our FB/IG stories for updates as these days sharpen up. This week is going to be interesting to watch come together.

But I’m admittedly really worried I’m jinxing this. But let’s get to the forecast.

1. Dry Skies and Possible Record Heat Ahead

It is looking like a very quiet stretch is ahead for the Plains and the Southwest. While that might sound like a relief to some, the underlying pattern tells a more complex story for the next ten days.

Most models show the region remaining dry for much of the next 7-10 days. Not surprising given the northwest flow aloft that should persist.

The primary culprit for our current lack of storms is the “Gulf wipe” we just experienced. Northerly winds pushed all the way down to the Yucatan, effectively scouring out any moisture. As northwest flow continues through the week, that moisture will stay locked away even as our temperatures begin to climb.

Some models are showing incredible warmth for this time of year by this weekend into early next week. We are seeing highs in the 90s in the extended forecast! But this warmth is a double-edged sword. While the sunshine is often welcome, fire danger will rise quite rapidly. We have a combination of low dewpoints, high temperatures, and very dry vegetation that we need to monitor closely.

There are no signs of severe weather in the immediate future. We will keep an eye on the long-range data to see when the next shift occurs.

2. Advanced Severe Weather Forecasting Masterclass

We held a deep-dive live class yesterday covering the intricacies of advanced forecasting. If you want to level up your understanding of how these setups come together, you can watch the full replay here.

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3. The Biggest Factor for 2026 Storm Season?

As we look toward the heart of the 2026 storm season, there is one specific factor that is going to play a massive role in how many tornadoes we actually see. Understanding this now will help you set better expectations for the months ahead.

Surely this active day is a sign of a major uptick in severe weather, right?

Right?

1. Lots of Atmospheric Waves, No Moisture

One of the reasons why I’m not a big believer in just looking at the upper air charts and being able to tell what’s going on sensibly (I’ve heard more than one person teach them this way) is because of the next two weeks. A quick glance at the 500mb chart would have you believing major weather is happening a couple of times a week — but these fast moving systems across the U.S. are going to be tapping into a very dry airmass, which will lead to almost no precipitation.

The current front pushing south will go all the way through the Gulf of Mexico and into the Caribbean. You can see the atmosphere in this image is already trying to funnel moisture northwards ahead of another wave by Monday — but there’s nothing to tap in to.

Models are pretty suggestive that early next week we’ll see yet another very strong front push through. This one pushes moisture about as far south as is possible this time of year.

Sensibly that type of pattern results in this. A wetter west thanks to pacific moisture plumes (ski resorts may finally get real snow out there!), and dry Plains, and a wetter eastern U.S. It’s not impossible we’ll see a few severe weather risks out of this pattern in the South — but the intense moisture buildup that precedes big winter severe weather outbreak days doesn’t seem to be in the offing just yet.

But it probably won’t be long until we see some big risks start up.

2. You’d Better Watch This Video

If you are curious about one of the features that’ll almost certainly drive our severe weather this spring, then you can do no wrong here:

3. Support Our Free Education, Become a Channel Member

If you’ve ever watched a massive supercell roll across the Plains and felt your heart race, you already know why we do this — but as a member, you get to go deeper.

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You’ll get early access to our cinema-grade 4K storm footage dropped within minutes of the event, behind-the-scenes looks at how we forecast and position for intercepts, and real conversations about the science and strategy behind every chase. We built Tornado Titans on one idea: Weather is for Everyone — and membership is how we keep it that way, funding the kind of in-depth, honest content that algorithms don’t reward but our community actually wants.

You’re not just subscribing to a channel; you’re joining a crew of people who believe severe weather deserves to be understood, not just sensationalized.​​​​​​​​​​​​

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1. Friday/Saturday Severe Threat

On Friday, we’ll see lift increase near and after sunset over the Southern Plains, allowing for several storms to form into the overnight hours. The main threat with these will be large hail.

We likely won’t see a lot of damaging wind reports, but the storms will not be elevated above the surface layer fully, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see some blue dots on the map as we move into the morning hours on Saturday. Another thing to watch is that, despite the modest low-level moisture, there is a lot of shear in the lowest levels. I don’t think a tornado risk is really warranted, but stranger things have happened.

Storms should be ongoing throughout much of the day on Saturday with a linear system taking shape over Texas into SE OK.

I’m not finding a lot of areas where low-level shear will necessarily overlap with low-level instability, so I’m not sure there’s much of a tornado threat with the linear system — but hail and damaging winds will be possible.

However, underneath the low over W/NW Oklahoma there’s A LOT of 3CAPE showing up on models with scattered storms. With a cold-core-like setup here, I wouldn’t rule out the atmosphere given the vorticity and stretching near a low. Never say never when this combo comes to town — I think a lot will ride on there being a lot more surface heating. But this will be something to watch in the coming 24 hours.

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2. Watch a Tornado Form in Real Time

Watch every second of this tornado's brief lifecycle in raw, uncut 4K. This 6-minute sequence captures the atmospheric process from start to finish near Las Vegas, NM. For the weather nerds: watch closely as the RFD surges and wraps around the mesocyclone once then twice. You’ll see the wall cloud quickly organize before the funnel finally drops. No music, no cuts, and no labels—just the raw science of a developing storm.

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But first…

1. Fire Season Begins

Any time you enter the warm-up phase of Feb through April with widespread drought, Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings become a near-daily occurrence across much of the Plains. Tomorrow will be no exception.

A critical risk area has been issued because of expected very warm temperatures, strong winds, and extremely dry vegetation. This area will likely see a lot of these in the coming weeks, so this is a good time to remind those who live on the Plains this time of year: don’t burn stuff. Don’t.

Unlike tornadoes, which we can’t control, a large percentage of wildfires on the Plains are caused by humans doing stuff they shouldn’t. So take precautions!

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2. The Pattern Has Flipped, Severe Weather Time?

Last night’s GFS made its rounds within pro chaser circles as people looked at the CAPE and shear present for setups both this week and next. Unsurprisingly (it is February), that seemed to be a one-off as today’s runs look a lot less impressive. We’re in a pattern that will support severe weather over the long term.

This week, the pattern offers a slight preview of what Spring might look like, with a deep subtropical jet bringing plenty of moisture to the Plains. Expect snow at higher elevations in the Southwest, but rain for most of the region. Moisture should be limited this week, which will likely keep severe chances at the lower end, if they’re present at all.

Ensembles are pointing to some decent QPF totals, with coverage likely less extensive than the broad brush these types of models provide:

And unfortunately for you winter lovers, we’re only really expecting snow in the highest elevations of New Mexico and Colorado from this system:

There is a possibility of a more favorable pattern for severe storms (and perhaps some wraparound snow for the C Plains) mid to late next week with an even stronger system. Both the GFS and Euro are pretty progressive with this system, which would tend to push much of the interesting stuff further east off of the Plains and into the South. But we’ll be watching it closely!

3. Why Did This Storm Die?

One of the things that has nagged at me since May 18, 2025, has been the sudden demise of the supercell that produced six tornadoes then died near Arnett, OK. After the last tornado, it was super obvious the storm had lost its surface inflow and it was thinning/narrowing quickly. The kicker was though: the environment was going BIG TIME at this point. The cap was not killing this storm. That mystery led to this video...