Moderate instability and strong wind shear will fuel a risk of severe weather today across portions of the Southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Storm mode is a big key today, as a more linear structure would have a lower overall tornado risk. Still, if those dominant supercells can develop, an enhanced tornado risk is also present.
The enhanced risk area runs from Missouri/Arkansas to the southeast. The highest tornado chances are along the Missouri/Arkansas border roughly.
Storms will form in the afternoon, with some reaching severe levels quickly. Models aren’t generating a ton of UH, which tends to indicate a lower overall supercell threat most days. Still, the wind shear is as such that a more isolated/dominant cell will absolutely be supercellular.
Storms will eventually become mostly linear by sunset — though it is likely a couple of embedded supercells will be present with what will likely be more HP characteristics.
The Bottom Line
The storms today will be pretty robust, with severe weather possible all the way back into Eastern Oklahoma and even Northern/Central Texas. Hail and damaging winds are the biggest threats with most storms, but at least one or two supercells will likely emerge from a convective mess with an enhanced tornado risk, including strong tornadoes.
This isn’t a typical time for this type of risk in this part of the country, so if you read this be sure to let your friends know by sharing this post that a severe weather risk is coming this afternoon.