We’re now beginning to get close enough that we need to start taking weather models a little more seriously (but not literally) about cloud cover and locations. We’re far enough out that things could still change some, but the background environment we’re going to be dealing with is pretty evident at this point. The pic shows a blend of different model solutions and projected cloud cover as of today.

What We Know: A large trough in the jet stream is going to be digging across the SW United States on the heels of another one that pushes through over the weekend. Moisture will likely be rapidly returning north and high clouds will likely be spreading downwind of the system on Monday. There will be clouds along at least parts of the eclipse’s path of totality; this is pretty much certain at this point. The odds of clouds in the south and west part of the path (Texas/Arkansas/Oklahoma) are higher than the north and east (Midwest/New England) at this point in time.

What We Don’t Know: The exact location and thickness of cloud cover won’t be well known until much closer to next Monday. You could have small pockets of clouds in places models don’t project right now, or you may have small pockets of clearing in areas where models are showing lots of clouds right now. We won’t know finer-scale stuff until possibly as early as the morning of 4/8. We’re anticipating a storm chase, except instead of storms, we’ll be chasing clear skies. Hopefully, they’re not as hard to forecast and locate as tornadoes.