Where is the Fall Season?! So far, we’ve had some passing glances of jet stream energy but there has been nothing resembling a deep western U.S. trough with ridging in the east ahead of it, which is a more classic severe weather pattern for the Plains.

A look at the dew points for that same period (Saturday Night) reveals some moisture hanging out east of the Southwestern U.S. low pressure system.

A look at the dew points for that same period (Saturday Night) reveals some moisture hanging out east of the Southwestern U.S. low pressure system.

It’s Complicated: The pattern over North America in the coming few days is pretty complicated.

  • There is a highly amplified and powerful trough crossing over Canada by Saturday.
  • A highly amplified ridge of high pressure situated over the Pacific Northwest.
  • Underneath that ridge of high pressure is a small area of low-pressure in the Southwest U.S. — which could be a slight weather maker from the southwest to the Southern Plains.

Many weather models show widespread rain/storms over the Southwest and Southern Plains.

Zooming In: The low in the Southwestern U.S. should bring some showers and storms from Arizona and New Mexico east to Texas and Oklahoma. For severe weather enthusiasts though, this is really a nothingburger with limited shear and instability expected to make any widespread severe weather unlikely.

Many weather models show widespread rain/storms over the Southwest and Southern Plains.

Drought Relief On The Menu: The exact path of the heaviest rain totals will depend on the track of the Southwestern U.S. low pressure system. Right now, many models (including the pictured GFS below) show a more southern route which would keep the heaviest precipitation totals across the southern 1/2 of Texas and New Mexico.

One model’s depiction of rainfall totals through the middle of next week.

Uncertainty on the track of the low: The track of the low will likely shift some, which could mean big differences for some areas in terms of precipitation totals.

  • What does seem obvious though is that there will be some heavy rain totals in the region.
  • The threat of severe weather will remain pretty low overall, but it would not be surprising too see low-end threat levels introduced in a future update.
  • The main threats from any severe weather that might manage to materialize would be damaging winds and hail.

Be sure to check out our most recent video! Also, subscribe to us on YouTube!