It’s Complicated: The pattern over North America in the coming few days is pretty complicated.
- There is a highly amplified and powerful trough crossing over Canada by Saturday.
- A highly amplified ridge of high pressure situated over the Pacific Northwest.
- Underneath that ridge of high pressure is a small area of low-pressure in the Southwest U.S. — which could be a slight weather maker from the southwest to the Southern Plains.
Zooming In: The low in the Southwestern U.S. should bring some showers and storms from Arizona and New Mexico east to Texas and Oklahoma. For severe weather enthusiasts though, this is really a nothingburger with limited shear and instability expected to make any widespread severe weather unlikely.
Drought Relief On The Menu: The exact path of the heaviest rain totals will depend on the track of the Southwestern U.S. low pressure system. Right now, many models (including the pictured GFS below) show a more southern route which would keep the heaviest precipitation totals across the southern 1/2 of Texas and New Mexico.
Uncertainty on the track of the low: The track of the low will likely shift some, which could mean big differences for some areas in terms of precipitation totals.
- What does seem obvious though is that there will be some heavy rain totals in the region.
- The threat of severe weather will remain pretty low overall, but it would not be surprising too see low-end threat levels introduced in a future update.
- The main threats from any severe weather that might manage to materialize would be damaging winds and hail.