I always believe that drought conditions can drive much of our Spring severe weather season. Drought is an important ingredient from stronger-than-average capping inversions due to drought in places like New Mexico to dry topsoils pushing drylines further east than usual.

As we enter mid-March, there’s a lot of drought across the Southwest, particularly far West Texas and New Mexico. Additionally, pesky drought conditions remain for the Midwest and portions of the Central Plains. 

In terms of the severe storm season, the drier conditions in the Southwest may lead to some pretty robust caps over the dryline early this Spring (we already saw one this last week prevent most of the dryline from producing storms). However, much of New Mexico is receiving a lot of precipitation this week, so we may see drought conditions ease in parts of that region in future updates.