It looks like two different waves of energy will release across the Southern/Central Plains with both snow and severe weather possible. A smaller wave arrives on Tuesday with a much more powerful wave of energy with the main low-pressure trough on Wednesday.
The first system Tuesday looks like a snow maker across CO/NM but less so the further east it goes. The moisture from this system falling over drought areas will be the main story with soil moisture levels being pretty lackluster across parts of the Southern/Central Plains.
The second system could be more significant as the main upper energy ejects out. Heavier snow totals are possible and should be N and W of the eventual low’s track. We’ll also see a severe weather threat to the South and East of the Low across SE OK and Texas.
- Right now the track of the low is very much in question. If the low is further north and faster like the GFS, the threat of significant weather over the lower Plains will be reduced.
- The Euro is further south and deeper. If this solution verifies, significant snow and a severe weather threat is a good bet across Texas/SE Oklahoma.
- Instability will be modest, but shear strong — something you’d expect in February. It’s too early to tell, but tornadoes and damaging winds look like a bigger threat than hail — but if any of these risks are big is a question to be answered later on.