Today looks a lot like yesterday in many ways but with better overall ingredients and likely lower storm coverage. This should result in a day with some severe storms and perhaps a couple of supercells with good structure. Another possibility is that storms grow upscale into small outflow driven clusters which could result in some pretty substantial dust storms across the Northern Panhandle region.

Upper 40s to mid 50s dewpoints will be in place across the Southern High Plains today with robust SE’ly flow bringing more rich moisture north throughout the day.
500mb flow in the mid-levels is not very strong, 20-30kt out of the WNW. Still, given the amount of turning with height, this could result in a couple of supercells that move slowly to the south and east late this afternoon and evening.
850mb flow will approach 30kt in some areas towards evening. While I think the tornado window is pretty much non-existent, this could help sculpt up any supercells or shelf clouds and will help maintain storms throughout the night most likely.
The ‘Spinny Storms Index’ (this is not an official term) shows low-end chances of rotating storms across the Panhandles today. There is perhaps an intriguing area deep into West Texas as well.
Storm coverage will be widespread, ranging from Southwest Kansas down into Mexico.

The Bottom Line: It’s a low threat day for severe weather, but as a storm chaser I am finding the options quite intriguing. We’re going to be out live streaming later and could be at any target in the Panhandles. We’re monitoring everything and we’ll see you there.


Tomorrow is another story. There are a lot of questions about cloud cover, degree of destabilization, morning convection and boundaries, and more. A strong jet streak will move across the Southern 1/2 of Oklahoma into Texas, with moderate to strong shear. This, coupled with moderate to strong instability could yield a pretty busy day for severe weather.

Mid and upper 60s dewpoints will be present tomorrow across Oklahoma and into Texas with a dryline located in Western OK and Western North Texas.
That same ‘Spinny Storms Index’ shows potential for supercells across Oklahoma and Central Texas tomorrow. I suspect the overall handling of storm initiation and evolution tomorrow is poorly handled right now by models. This is something I’m watching very closely even as we chase today.

The Bottom Line: There are numerous questions about tomorrow, but the basic ingredients for a significant severe weather day and tornado risk are there. I think the degree of destabilization and storm mode/coverage are my big questions. As with April 19th, if you get isolated, mature, and robust supercells strong tornadoes are likely given the wind shear. But I’m not fully convinced things will work out that way yet. But it is something I’m at least concerned about to mention here.

Be sure to subscribe to us on YouTube as we’ll be going live both today and tomorrow about 4:00 CT.