Severe thunderstorms are expected across central and eastern Texas into southwest Louisiana today, with potential for large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado. An organized cluster of storms may evolve, enhancing the risk for damaging wind gusts.

Locations:

  • Primary Risk Area: Central and eastern Texas to southwest Louisiana.

Threats:

  • Large Hail: Initial storms may produce hail, particularly as convection intensifies in the afternoon.
  • Damaging Wind Gusts: Likely as storms merge into a significant cluster, particularly by evening.
  • Tornadoes: A tornado or two are possible, especially as low-level winds strengthen and hodographs enlarge during the evening.

Timing:

  • Storm Development: Expected to intensify in the afternoon and persist into tonight.
  • Peak Intensity: Late afternoon through evening as storms consolidate and mature.

Meteorological Discussion:

  • Synoptic Setup: A cluster of storms in North Texas this morning is forecast to grow upscale and intensify with daytime heating and interaction with a northward-moving warm front.
  • Storm Development Regions:
    • Additional development is anticipated from the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys into central Texas, where the environment will become highly unstable.
    • Surface features include a trough/dryline extending southwestward towards the Texas Panhandle and into West Texas.
  • Storm Modes and Evolution: Supercell potential is highest near/east of a surface triple point, with storms likely growing in scale and posing increasing wind damage threats into the evening.

Technical Discussion

The ‘main event’ will start earlier today as storms mature and grow upscale across Central and Eastern Texas. Here, damaging winds and large hail are the primary hazards. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
The convective system to the east may overwhelm and shrink the warm sector, but a few small supercells with large hail the main threat may evolve across western Texas.
An environmental analysis from the Texas coastal plain region shows a favorable environment for severe weather, including supercells, into the evening. A very unstable and tropical airmass will be in place with plenty of shear. This is a tornado environment if storm mode is favorable, which remains an open question this morning.