Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and Southern Plains. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may develop across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight.

Locations:

  • Slight Risk Area: Oklahoma, north Texas, eastward to the Ark-La-Miss

Threats:

  • Large Hail: Up to 3 inches in diameter
  • Damaging Winds: 60-80 mph
  • Tornadoes: A couple of tornadoes possible

Timing:

  • Storm Initiation: This afternoon
  • Peak Threat: Evening into early tonight

Discussion:

Southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley:

  • Setup: Multiple small thunderstorm clusters are ongoing across southern KS/northwest OK, northwest TX, and the TX Panhandle. The most substantial of these is an MCS with a history of 60-80 mph measured gusts across southwest KS. This MCS has weakened but could continue east-southeastward toward central OK this morning.
  • Storm Development: Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary near the southwest OK border. Rich low-level moisture (dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak heating.
  • Severe Potential: Isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border). These storms will move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Despite modest flow aloft, an enhanced easterly component to the low-level flow near the outflow boundary will contribute to sufficient hodograph length/curvature for right-moving supercells. The extreme buoyancy, sufficiently low LCL heights, and enhanced low-level shear along the boundary will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes, isolated very large hail (up to 3 inches), and damaging gusts. Evening storms or additional storms associated with warm advection will be possible tonight across southern and central OK.

Southern WI and Vicinity:

  • Setup: A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. Surface temperatures warming to 75-80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints increasing to 65-70 F will support