A pair of severe weather risks are on the way this week, with Thursday and Friday both outlooked by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman. Let’s take a look at both days with some quick-hit analysis.
Upper level storm system hanging back on Thursday.
An upper-level storm system will be coming ashore from Wednesday into Thursday, but model guidance continues to hang this system back more and more on Thursday. With the ongoing frontal intrusion into the Gulf of Mexico, the moisture return you need for significant severe weather on Thursday will likely be delayed by a few hours, which will probably mean big differences in the practical impacts.
Thursday will probably come down to if there is a very subtle, not-yet resolved disturbance running well ahead of the main system. As it stands right now, main upper support is too far west to provide any upper lift along the dryline (which you usually need). This is causing numerous issues from slightly lethargic moisture return to warm mid-level temps which limit instability and hold a cap in place.
That cooling and lift aloft would probably help initiate a storm or two, but the overall setup looks more like a marginal severe setup with mid-lower 50 dewpionts and only just adequate wind shear. But we’re monitoring for changes.
SPC risk for Thursday.
The most likely scenario I think at this time is Thursday ends up a day that sets up Friday. Models are zero’ing in on Friday being a day where storms initiate along a surging front throughout the day, bringing about numerous storms from Iowa down into Texas.
Severe weather is a good bet on Friday, and probably some tornadoes as well. For the Plains, it looks like storms may fire very early in the day and march east into Arkansas into the afternoon. We’ll be watching Friday, but I’m really not terribly confident in it right now so we’ll leave our quick-hitting analysis there for now.
Friday is much different, with the dynamic system racing north and east, setting up a large warm sector.
SPC risk for Friday.
Top Image: Analysis of Thursday’s setup.