A big trough with lots of energy will roll over the Plains this weekend, bringing stormy weather to many. The severe weather risk with this system does look to be limited due to warm temps aloft suppressing storms initially and then overwhelming forcing leading to numerous storms which will limit instability and thus, severe weather chances.
But many of us will get rain!
The Rainy Period Begins Monday
But the upper support does arrive by Monday — morning. The timing of the upper level wave on Monday, and the amount of forcing it is bringing will lead to widespread showers and storms.
The lack of instability will be very notable throughout this event. The strong moisture advection into the region will lead to widespread low clouds in the warm-sector, which when combined with ample clouds higher as well will lead to very limited instability values.
But the Rainfall Totals!
The rainfall totals from this system are going to be measured in the inches for many in the region. As we head into a La Niña winter, you want every last drop of rain you can get to stave off the worst drought conditions. While not every La Niña winter ends up in drought, most do. So this system will be a nice one to get as we roll into the cold season.
We will have another system rolling through the Southern Plains on the 28-29 or so it looks, but instability will likely be limited with that one as well.