An enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms is expected today from Central Texas to parts of the Georgia/South Carolina coast. Central Texas, including the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex, is particularly vulnerable to very large hail, potentially exceeding 3 inches in diameter, as well as damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.

Locations:

  • Enhanced Risk Area: Central Texas to parts of the Georgia/South Carolina coast.
  • Primary Focus: North and Central Texas into the Arklatex vicinity.

Threats:

  • Large Hail: Supercells capable of producing hail over 3 inches in diameter.
  • Damaging Winds: Locally severe gusts are expected along the path of the storms.
  • Tornadoes: There is a conditional risk for tornadoes, dependent on local storm-scale processes.

Timing:

  • Initial Development: Potential for storm initiation as soon as late morning to midday near the front, especially over the Edwards Plateau.
  • Peak Activity: This afternoon and evening, with severe weather threats including significant hail.

Discussion

  • Atmospheric Setup: A long, continent-spanning trough is influencing weather patterns across a large swath of the U.S., with multiple shortwave troughs enhancing convective potential. A particularly significant southern stream shortwave is expected to move from Southwest to Central Texas today, contributing to severe weather development.
  • Surface Conditions: A frontal boundary extending across the region will gradually sag southward throughout the day, serving as a focal point for storm development. The boundary layer will destabilize due to strong diurnal heating, weakening the cap and facilitating the development of severe storms.
  • Storm Dynamics: The combination of high instability (MLCAPE up to 4500 J/KG), steep mid-level lapse rates, and sufficient shear due to veering winds aloft will favor the development of splitting supercells. These storms are likely to produce very large hail and potentially severe wind gusts.
  • Potential Impacts: The Dallas/Fort Worth area, along with surrounding regions extending into the Hill Country and eastward, should be prepared for severe weather conditions this afternoon and evening.

Safety Tips:

  • Stay informed through local weather alerts and updates.
  • Have a plan in place for seeking shelter in case of severe weather.
  • Be aware of the risks associated with large hail and damaging winds, especially if traveling or outdoors.