Severe storms will form along a cold front from Illinois to Texas, with big hail being a primary threat in Arkansas,Oklahoma, and Texas. The cold front’s position and the timing of storm development are the big questions for tomorrow. Some models are producing storms very near DFW, which would be a pretty big deal if a robust supercell with giant hail is able to form.

The tornado threat tomorrow looks really low but not zero. While instability will be very strong, the wind shear in the lowest-levels is pretty weak, with the wind shear overall also being fairly marginal for even supercells. Given the degree of instability and likelihood of a deviant motion to the south and east though, I think you’ll get a few supercells forming off of the cold front.

The strongest storms will move nearly due south very slowly. 

We’ll have a more comprehensive outlook on tomorrow later today and also tomorrow morning.