An Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms exists for portions of northwest and north-central Texas. Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected to develop from mid-afternoon through tonight, with the severe weather risks lasting all night and into tomorrow. The main threat is large to giant hail, with a few tornadoes and severe wind gusts also possible. 

Locations

  • Northwest Texas
  • North-central Texas

Threats

  • Large to giant hail (potentially 3-4 inches in diameter)
  • A few tornadoes (mainly towards evening)
  • Damaging wind gusts

Timing

  • Mid-afternoon through tonight and into tomorrow. 

Discussion

Weather Development: A deepening upper-level trough moving across the Southwest will create a very favorable environment for severe storms. Rich moisture and strong heating will lead to significant instability, while strong winds at various levels in the atmosphere will provide ample wind shear.

Storm Evolution:

  • Initial storms will likely be supercells, posing the highest threat of large to giant hail.
  • Storms may consolidate into a cluster during the evening, maintaining a severe threat across north-central Texas.

Overnight Concerns: Renewed storm development is possible in western Texas, with large hail remaining the main threat. Severe weather will be possible continuously, at least until tomorrow afternoon.

Tornado Threat: The threat will begin to rise in the late afternoon and last into the night. The highest chances of tornadoes will be with any sustained supercells from 5 p.m. to midnight.

Technical Discussion

Refcmp uh001h.us sc-21.

Initial Cells will form both at the triple point in West Texas and in a warm advection regime across East Texas, southern Arkansas, and Northern Louisiana late this afternoon and early this evening. These initial cells will be capable of large hail and a tornado.

Refcmp uh001h.us sc-22.

The severe weather threat will likely peak from about 7 p.m. to 9 p.m. in the hours around sunset. These cells will pose an increasing tornado chance as low-level wind fields increase.

Hrrr 2024040812 014 33.12--99.3.

At the triple point, effective SRH values of nearly 200 m2/s2, along with enough instability to sustain updrafts, will lead to an increasing chance of tornadoes near dark. Interestingly enough, I think there’s a reasonable chance for some decent storm structure today out west as well. We’ll be monitoring.

Hrrr 2024040812 012 30.48--96.27.

To the south and east in the warm advection regime, moisture and wind shear are both ample enough for tornadic activity as well. Effective SRH values of greater than 200 m2/s2 are common on soundings. It is important to note that storms tend to be a bit more widespread than models predict in these regimes, and smaller cells can produce tornadoes. We’ll be monitoring this risk area as well for post-eclipse tornado viewing possibilities.