Storms are now taking shape in two distinct areas.

  • The first is in Northern Oklahoma. These storms are likely rooted above the surface layer for now, but large hail is the main threat with them either way for the next couple of hours.
  • The second is a massive blossoming of storms west of Abilene, Texas—much farther south and west than anticipated. This is an area with very weak low-level shear, which is apparent by the nature of storms on radar. As these cells move north and east, they may tend to expand in coverage, with very large hail and damaging winds possible. We’re watching the area just north and east of this complex for possible supercell development, with very large hail, which is the most likely threat in the short term.
  • The tornado risk will ramp up closer to 6 p.m. with any isolated and dominant supercells. Models indicate this is most likely in the Red River Valley and perhaps in NE OK and SW MO. 

Another update soon!