It is…yet another day where severe weather will occur over broad swaths of the central U.S.

There are two areas to talk about so let’s get to it.

North Target

Supercells with an attendant large hail and low tornado risk should take shape over Eastern Nebraska down into Northeast Kansas this afternoon.

The SPC has issued a 5% tornado risk for an arcing area near a upper low moving northeast.
Storms should form in the early-mid afternoon in both the north and south targets. In the north target, shear is sufficient that storms should become supercellular pretty rapidly.
Moderate instability will combine with just enough wind shear to create an environment that is favorable for at least a few supercells. The veering of winds with height is not very strong, which is resulting in pretty modest effective shear values. This may modulate the overall tornado threat a bit given what I suspect are more crowded storm modes.
  • Overall I think large hail is the primary threat. Some hail sizes could approach giant (baseball+) in the stronger storms.
  • The tornado risk is low, but it will be maximized where a dominant supercell mode can establish. Storm interactions may help storms produce tornadoes today (like they did yesterday). But only the ‘right kind’ of interaction that enhances the RFD.

South Target

Down south, a more complicated scenario is in place across Oklahoma and Texas. Several boundaries from yesterday’s storms are apparent across the region.

The complicated surface pattern includes at least two prominent boundaries that will likely focus the tornado chances this afternoon.
Wind shear is a pretty big problem, just 22kts of effective shear and 26kts of bulk shear. Still, given the lapse rates aloft and the moist airmass — any storm interacting with a boundary will ‘supercell up’ for at least a couple of hours.
  • The tornado risk in Oklahoma and North Texas is very low. It will likely focus along the boundaries in place ahead of the front, with a brief window for the storm to spin up a tornado or two.
  • I don’t think there will be a lot of tornado producing storms. We’re talking one, maybe two. And all within an hour or two most likely.
  • The hail and damaging wind threat is definitely much higher today. Again, expect giant hail in this region from the strongest storms.
  • It is may, you chase. At least that’s what I’m telling myself as I sit under one of these boundaries as I type this.

The Bottom Line

It will be another day full of severe weather reports and expect at least a few tornado reports out of today. I also think we may see a few storms produce 3” or 4” hailstones today. Hail is back in style!

Overall it’s a standard but enhanced threat of severe weather today. As always, have a good severe weather action plan together.