There’s a slight risk of severe storms over a broad area of the South and Mid-South. Some tornadoes are possible, but the bigger threat will likely evolve into a damaging wind threat with time. 

What: Scattered storms becoming a line with hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes possible.

Where: South and Mid-South.

When: Starting late this morning and lasting into the night.

Discussion: An upper storm system is pushing east this morning and will set the stage for severe storms beginning from Arkansas/Louisiana and far East Texas and then moving east/north through the day and upcoming night. 

Storms will initially be scattered in nature, with mixed storm modes likely. Some supercells are possible initially, but looking at the environment shows near unidirectional winds with a 0-6km shear vector almost perfectly parallel to the front. This is highly indicative of a line of storms taking shape.

Because of the lack of backed winds in the area where there is robust instability, the tornado threat doesn’t seem extremely high, but there will certainly be potential for a tornado or two today. 

Damaging winds will become more of a threat with time as an extensive line of storms takes shape as far north as Kentucky/Tennessee down to the Gulf Coast. Overall, the threat is low today but could become locally enhanced in favorable corridors where surface winds back towards the south slightly more.