I’m going to admit: it is getting very difficult to write these blogs because every day is basically the same forecast wise. Storms will form in an environment that is very close to being supercell and even tornado worthy, most should congeal into an MCS, and one or two storms may do something more interesting from a storm chasing perspective. So with that said, let’s dive in and try to make this forecast blog interesting.
Supercell from Monday near Turpin, Oklahoma.
What to Expect Today
Tornadoes will be a low-end threat again today, but again you can’t rule one or two out but I think today is going to end up being more of a linear complex type of day. Moisture will be slightly lower quality today thanks to a bit of scouring from last night’s linear system that swept through Texas but its not as bad as one might’ve otherwise expected.
Storms will begin forming in the mid-afternoon across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. The initial storms could begin forming as early as noon on the mountains in New Mexico.
The HRRR mixes down moisture a bit too much *I think* tomorrow afternoon, but still — storms should be pretty high-based as they form. Shear will be sufficient for storms to organize and rotate as supercells. DCAPE is 1200-1500 in soundings, which indicates a threat of quick cold pool generation with the high storm bases and higher damaging wind potential early on.
Looking at a sounding from another model (3km NAM) from a bit later in the day is a bit more optimistic on the moisture but the wind shear remains modest into the evening. The hodograph shape also is pretty janky, which will probably make storm organization a bit slower to occur if any isolated cells are still ongoing by the sunset hours.
Eventually, a linear complex should evolve tomorrow. In fact, it would be very surprising if all roads don’t lead to linear. This will mean the main severe weather threat will be damaging winds.
The Bottom Line