The active August in the country pushed us pretty far above average for the year on the tornado count, but a quiet fall is moving us back toward average again. This year has gone in fits and spurts, with us spending time above and below average at different points.
The exciting thing about this year is that the typical ‘peak’ of tornado season in May and June was relatively quiet, but we’ve had so much ‘off-schedule’ activity throughout the year that we’ve been able to stay on track largely. This trend honestly fits with what I think has been one of the most unique overall yearly seasons I can remember in some time, with the Spring featuring nearly constant low-level threat days that were chaseable (and rewarding) but very few tornadoes — with major outbreaks on either side of Spring.
Looking ahead, the pattern overall doesn’t favor a lot of tornadoes anytime in the next 7-10 days at least — so we may slide even closer to average towards the end of the year if the pattern were to persist for much longer.
Still, there is a lot of warm air forecast this week for the Plains — and the Gulf does remain anomalously warm. It will only take one potent, slow-moving trough to bring that moisture back north with a significant risk of tornadoes in tow — so it is best to stay vigilant as we head toward the end of the year.