It is very early, and many details will change going into next Tuesday when there is an outlined risk of severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center over parts of the Plains.

Models are tentatively producing some storms on the developing dryline across portions of Oklahoma and North Texas, with enough shear in place for supercells towards dark. However, instability looks meager, and capping is an issue throughout the day. Shear also only increases near sunset, with hodograph shapes that are not conducive to significant severe weather in the afternoon, according to some model runs.

Increasing lift with the upper trough mixed with continued convergence along surface boundaries will undoubtedly lead to storms, with some severe weather possible. We’re keeping an eye on it, as details will change on Tuesday.