We talked about today’s setup last night in our newsletter. But looking at the risk today, it does appear very isolated storm development is possible ahead of a surface low and dryline today across Illinois and Indiana just prior to sunset. 

The ingredients today are supportive of supercell development to be sure, but the tornado risk seems highly conditional and based within a pretty tight window. Of more concern is the threat of any supercell producing some rather large hail, as soundings are highly supportive of that possibility today with any rogue storms. 

Models place these dangerously close to the Chicago metro area after dark. Closer to 9-11 p.m., more storms will take shape further south across Missouri, to Southern Illinois and Indiana, with an associated risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a very low tornado threat.