We are now heading into May. 

Folks, it’s gonna be May.

And the active pattern we’ve come to expect is going to to roll on for better or worse with 3 severe weather chances on the Plains this week. Tornadoes will be possible as will large hail and damaging winds. Additionally, flooding is increasingly becoming a risk with active patterns leading to more rainfall. Let’s talk about it all.

Spcd2cat.conus 2.

Tuesday

As we look towards tomorrow, the Storm Prediction Center has a risk area outlined already from Kansas to Southwest Minnesota. Here, supercells with some tornado risk are present. We actually spent some time with this day on our blog already today; you can find that forecast here.

Wednesday

There are some questions for Wednesday that will need answering based on how Tuesday goes, but the stage does appear set for one more very active day on Wednesday. I hope for us to have a blog out on this day later on in the day. 

On the surface, numerous storms should form from Kansas down to NW Texas with tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds possible in the afternoon and evening. This day does have the potential to have several tornadoes, and it is what we consider this week’s ‘day to really monitor’. 

Thursday

On Thursday, things are very uncertain. Like yesterday, the environment on Thursday will see a lot of convective overturning in places as a front starts moving south. I think storms are likely on Thursday, and severe weather in that case is certain. But the tornado risk is likely lower due to weaker low-level winds. Large hail is the predominant threat, with damaging winds more likely by evening.

Beyond

Tranquil weather looks possible towards the weekend as a front slides south of the chase region (deep into Texas) with flow easing aloft. However, lurking out in the distance is a potential set of big days early next week. We’ll be monitoring.