Professional forecasters, supported by long-term models, point to an active storm track with above-normal precipitation continuing.

Forecasts into February show ample precipitation falling across the southern 1/2 of the country, well above normal.

There will be some severe weather risk days out of this pattern, surely, but most long-term models struggle with getting super rich moisture north thanks to repeated cold surges into the Gulf of Mexico. This isn’t unusual for swinging El Niños, as our last three were quite tranquil the first quarter of the year before heating up in April and then May.