We’re set to end the week with stormy and unsettled weather on the Southern/Central Plains back into the Southwest, but to start the week, it’s fire season time.

03 04 24 fire wx outlook.

A fire weather risk area is outlined tomorrow from West Texas, through SE New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle. Warm, dry, and windy conditions will once again lead to chances of rapid wildfire spread tomorrow.

After tomorrow, though, attention will shift into the mid and later portions of this week, with storms possibly beginning on Tuesday.

The RRFS has a few storms around on Tuesday afternoon from eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas and Missouri. If these were to happen, they’d occur between storm systems with weak shear and instability. Coverage will be sporadic at best, with few storms overall likely the end result Tuesday afternoon. If trends hold, don’t be surprised if the marginal risk is pulled back north and west.

From there, the GFS depicts a subtropical trough moving into the Plains for the Thursday/Friday timeframe. The Euro is slightly less impressive on the overall strength of this system, but it is very similar in placement and timing which is not nothing at this range.

Regardless of which model is correct, the end solution is likely the same — with showers and thunderstorms over the Central/Southern Plains on Thursday and into Friday. There will likely be a severe weather risk with this, but it may be on the lower end of things. A lot is up in the air at this time, but the things you would look for in March for severe weather will be present.

After Friday, a cooler/tranquil pattern should set in for the weekend.

The Bottom Line

I don’t think the chase prospects this week are particularly high, but if you are starting your chases in the Oklahoma City to Dallas area, it may pay to watch Thursday and Friday for chase potential, although it appears quite low-end at the present time.

We’ll get to the good stuff eventually, but for now, I think we’re in a holding pattern waiting on the first truly robust chases of the year.