This isn’t a mega storm chase day to be sure, but a few storms will form along a slow moving boundary with just enough wind shear to organize a few storms to produce some large hail this afternoon. This setup is somewhat similar to yesterday’s in terms of how storms are likely to evolve.
This Probably Means It Is Spring
This is a setup that is pretty common in the Spring when there’s just enough of everything to warrant storms and a low-risk of severe weather. Given the atypical nature of this setup (northeast flow aloft, post-frontal drier airmass), it is pretty easy to say we’re probably across the line from the transition season into something more fully springlike. None of the ingredients are particularly high-end or noteworthy today, but there’s just enough of everything to make severe storms possible — not unlike yesterday.
Tornado Risk is Very Low
I don’t think the overall tornado risk is very high today, and certainly not from the classic mesocyclone processes. If a tornado were to form today, it’d be of the landspout variety from a storm at or just after formation along the slow moving boundary. The instable low-levels mixed with the added spin along the front could be enough to eek out a rogue red dot on the map today.
Hail Risk Is Low But…
This isn’t a day you typically look for mega hail out of, but it would not be surprising if a storm or two could organize just enough to produce hail up to golfball size or so. The threat should peak around sunset and quickly diminish shortly after.
The Bottom Line: This isn’t a big risk day by any stretch of the imagination, and honestly had such low-end ingredients it really hasn’t registered as a day to watch. Still, a couple of folks could experience a pretty stout hail core today and there is a very, very low risk of a landspout along the boundary. It’s not nothing!