Today isn’t a huge day on the surface, but a couple of supercells will likely merge with a growing cluster as a linear complex tonight and sweep south and east, possibly right across the DFW metroplex. Large hail will be the biggest threat initially, but damaging winds and a tornado or two could become threats with time overnight.

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Only very modest MLCAPE will make its way northwards today thanks to pretty low-end mositure values for severe weather this time of year. The wind shear will be rather weak initially, with 0-6km bulk shear coming in below 35kt, which means supercells are going to struggle to take shape for a bit.

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Most of the CAMs this morning show two areas of robust storm formation. One along/north of a warm front on the Red River in Northern Texas, another in the Texas Panhandle. The cells in the Panhandle will be the ones most likely to evolve into a supercell or two. I think storms will take a bit to get going out there, but eventually a robust enough updraft will likely turn the storm right enough to increase the wind shear to a point supercells become more likely despite seemingly marginal wind shear numbers.

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With time, the supercells from the west and the messy cluster from the north will likely merge into a progressive line overnight. This will effectively send the warm front back south as a cold front to set up tomorrow’s severe weather event.

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Initial wind shear values are very poor if you are looking for robust supercells. While the 0-6km bulk shear numbers are 39, the overall SRH values leave much to be desired. If you do get supercells, they likely wouldn’t be that impressive initially.

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In time, there will be more curvature introduced into the hodograph towards sunset. This will make supercells a bit more robust with prehaps a bit of solid structure nearer to sunset. However, the cooler surface temperatures and weak instability may modulate the structure show a bit for storm chasers. 

The Bottom Line

Storms will form this afternoon and we won’t have a period without storms for at least 36-48 hours after that in the Central/Southern Plains. Today’s risk is low, but some hail could happen early before a damaging wind threat becomes more dominant after dark. A tornado or two is certainly possible, setups find weird ways to make that stuff happen this time of year — but I’m not fired up about that potential whatsoever.

I suspect this is the start of a two-day stretch with lots of severe weather, perhaps some notable large hail/damaging wind reports, but very low quality storm chasing (for our purposes). But this author has been wrong many times before!