An upper trough is digging in out to the west. Enough energy and moisture will be sent east and overspread the High Plains to create an environment favorable for strong to severe storms across portions of Colorado, New Mexico, Kansas, and Texas.
The Big Picture
That large upper trough is digging to the south today, and it will take its sweet time before coming out to the east.
Zooming in, the SPC has highlighted a marginal risk across much of the eastern Plains of New Mexico into the same region in Colorado. The threat stretches west beyond the Central Mountains, which may mean even places like Albuquerque and Santa Fe could see a severe storm.
Everything is just a little better tomorrow overall, which means that the risk of severe storms is going to be there as well. Right now, the SPC hasn’t outlined a marginal risk zone, but expect that to change as soon as the afternoon update to the day two outlook.
The Next Few Days
The upper trough responsible for this weekend’s severe weather risks will migrate only very slowly east Monday-Wednesday, with daily severe weather risks in tow. I think Monday-Wednesday risks may be greater, with tornadoes becoming possible by Tuesday/Wednesday. It may be time for this author to trek east this week finally.
The Bottom Line
The next two days are not going to be the chases of the year, but this may be one of the last few systems to chase in 2023 before true cold season patterns take hold on the Plains. With that in mind, we’ll probably be live in the field the next two days trying out some equipment and theories on live streaming in preparation for bigger days to come this Fall.
I suspect the higher-based nature of storms over a drier environment could lead to some pretty spectacular lightning and perhaps even a haboob.
Not a huge risk area, but a few severe wind reports and a rogue large hail report are to be expected.