Short-range high-resolution models are in good agreement this morning that a few storms will form after dark tonight along/ahead of a cold front moving south and east through the Southern Plains. This front will also be responsible for the severe weather threat that will continue through the night and into tomorrow (more on that later today).

Forecast soundings from this area show a slight chance that a storm or two could be rooted near the surface — but generally, it is more likely that storms will be ingesting air parcels from a more elevated position, making the tornado threat very, very low. There is enough instability, and the shear profiles are such that some large hail will be the primary threat with storms tonight in this region.

Storms should weaken with time before firing anew tomorrow along the surging front. It’s a pretty standard day, but if you live in the region, you should PROBABLY make sure that car is parked under something if you can.