Hail is the primary threat with storms that will form throughout the day across Southern Texas. Some of these storms may acquire updraft rotation and become supercells.

Threats

  • Large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter)
  • Isolated damaging wind gusts

Timing

  • Late this afternoon into tonight

Discussion

  • Weather Pattern
    • A closed upper-level low over Arizona will influence the weather over Texas.
    • A surface front and the subtropical jet will create conditions favorable for storm development.
  • Challenges & Uncertainties
    • Leftover storms from this morning complicate the forecast as they influence where new thunderstorms might form.
    • The exact timing and location of storm initiation remain uncertain.
  • Storm Evolution
    • If conditions allow for recovery of instability inland, subtle disturbances within the subtropical jet along with the surface front could trigger new thunderstorms late this afternoon.
    • Warm, moist air (dewpoints 65-70 F) combined with favorable wind shear supports supercell development.
    • Large hail is the primary threat, with some potential for damaging wind gusts, especially if storms remain organized into the night.
    • The tornado threat is not zero, but you could classify it as very low.