A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms exists Saturday across portions of the Central and Southern Plains, primarily in western Nebraska, central and eastern Kansas, and eastern Oklahoma.

Threats:

  • Locally damaging winds
  • Hail (mainly 1 to 1.5 inches)
  • Very low tornado risk.

Locations:

  • Western Nebraska
  • Central and eastern Kansas
  • Eastern Oklahoma

Timing:

  • Saturday afternoon and evening

Discussion

Weather Development: A deepening low-pressure system in the Western U.S. will push a cold front through the Plains states. Strong winds at multiple levels of the atmosphere and afternoon heating will contribute to storm development and organization.

Storm Type: Expect isolated thunderstorms initially, but likely growing upscale into an arcing line of storms.

  • Some of these storms will be supercells. They will occur earlier in the afternoon up in Nebraska but possibly later in the day down in Oklahoma. 
  • Expect storms to form north to south in an arc.
  • The greatest tornado risk will be with supercells.

Main Threats: Localized damaging wind gusts and hail are the primary concerns, though tornadoes are also a non-zero threat.

Limitations: Low moisture (dewpoints in the 40s) will limit the extent and intensity of the severe weather in the northern target. Expect storms to weaken in the evening hours.

  • Further south: Storms will form later in the day in a more unstable airmass with strong wind shear. The position of the jet streak coming out indicates this area will be less favorable for storm sustenance, though.