Timing: 3pm-9pm

Location: E TX Panhandle into W Oklahoma.

Impacts: If storms can form, higher based supercells with large hail.

april 3 2019 morning sfc image

This morning’s surface conditions showing the lack of moisture. This will be a concern through today.

Forecast Discussion

Today is a classic just in time moisture day along the dry line — except in this case the moisture isn’t that great that will arrive just in time. Still, strong upper forcing will overspread the Plains today with the possibility of a storm or two forming along the dryline.

A couple of things to take note of is that storms will likely be dealing with 15-20F dew point depressions so bases will be skeptically high and capping will be increasingly strong the further east a storm gets. This will create a pretty unfavorable environment for updrafts to sustain themselves into the evening. Regardless, if the heating, moisture and forcing both arrive in time to overcome the cap, expect a couple of storms this afternoon to form along the dryline.

Chase wise this is a structure/hail day it looks. Tornado threat isn’t 0, but that narrow corridor in the evening seems unlikely the more I think about the increasing capping storms will be encountering even as LCLs lower somewhat in the evening. Maybe, but tornadoes do seem to be a long shot today.