SPC Tornado Outlook for September 6, 2012.

Today’s Severe Threat in Kansas and Nebraska: Supercells?

September 6, 2012 | by admin

There is a threat of Severe Thunderstorms today from SE Nebraska down a cold front into Western Kansas. Wind shear is sufficient enough and instability is strong enough that Supercells could be possible later today in this region. While large hail and strong downburst winds will be the main threat, if a storm can remain discrete into the early evening a small tornado risk could develop in West Kansas — especially if a storm can really get a rightward deviant motion going into the evening.

Surface instability shows what is a clear Triple Point/Dryline bulge later today on the RAP in West Kansas.

The Skew-T for the area shows sufficient shear and lapse rates for severe storms including supercells.

The Skew-T for the triple-point area shows sufficient shear and lapse rates for severe storms including supercells.

The low level Jet is neither strong nor entirely weak. With a southerly storm motion, it’d be sufficient for mesocyclone formation.

LCL heights off of the Triple Point are manageable according to the RAP towards evening, which could yield a surprise for an enterprising chaser.

Local WRF Model shows good convective development in Kansas, which could be semi-discrete.

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