Preliminary Winter Forecast for 2012-2013 Season
Given that a winter weather advisory is in effect for the higher elevations of Colorado through Thursday, today seems like a good time to issue a preliminary winter forecast. Factors considered include ENSO, PDO, and AMO. These are not the only factors impacting winter weather, but these will serve as the basis for this forecast. As stated in my post “El Nino and the Upcoming Winter”, El Nino events during a negative PDO phase tend to be weaker and located in the central Pacific ocean. The effect of warmer than average water changes the upward motion pattern in the tropics. Air cools as it rises upward in the atmosphere and condenses in the form of cloud cover and rainfall. The jet stream then adjusts accordingly. Air flow is toward the central Pacific, as the air that rises needs to be replaced.
With that in mind, what are some years this upcoming winter appears to be similar to? I have weighted 1951-52, 1957-58, 1963-64, 1965-66, 2002-03, 2006-07, and 2009-10 highest because they follow Cold PDO/Warm AMO oncoming El Nino’s. Heres a look at the NOAA Physical Sciences Earth System Laboratory anomalies for those years blended together.
Precipitation Anomalies (departure from average) using the base period 1981-2010
Temperature Anomalies using base period 1981-2010
While this appears to be cool for much of the nation, let us not forget the United States was in a warming trend for much of the last 30 years. So lets check out the 1950-2007 anomalies
It should be noted that 1951-52 is a temperature outlier in the east.
We cannot toss out 1951-52 yet, but I prefer to blend the data at this junction. So here is what I expect for the United States for this winter.
Areas that usually get pounded with Lake Effect snowfall are in for a good year. The Great Lakes, especially the shallower lakes (Erie, Ontario) are very warm this year. It won’t take much for a good Arctic blast to drop copious amounts of snow in the Northeast Ohio, Western PA, and Western NY state. It looks like somewhere in the Northeast will really get hammered with snowfall this winter. It may be the Mid-Atlantic as it was in 2009-10, or New England (2002-2003). Some research suggests the sun plays an important role in the amount “blocking” that occurs in the high latitudes. Never the less there will be plenty of energy available off the east coast due to the warm phase of the AMO.
Last winter was a postive NAO/AO, while the previous two winters featured negative NAO/AO.
As of now I favor early snows for the Mid Atlantic before the brunt of the winter shifts north into New England. October temperatures have shown a correlation to the upcoming winter, so an update will be issued next month. These ideas are supported by the Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) seasonal weather model.
Centrally Located El Nino forecast by the JAMSTEC
- Surface temperature anomalies forecast
Precipitation Anomalies
For specific questions about any given locations or any of this content, tweet me @zgreenwx or leave a comment and I will be happy to answer.
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What about North Alabama?
Based off the analog’s Northern Alabama is colder than normal, but also slightly drier. However any precip that falls has a chance to be snow. The deep south should see some interesting weather…I like the placement of the subtropical (southern) jet stream to be right along the gulf coast. In 2009 Houston saw snow on December 4 while in 2008 New Orleans saw some snow on December 11. If this activity lifts slightly to the north then Northern AL can get in on the snow.
I believe the cold air will be in place for to happen Derek. However one thing that can be a concern for snow-lovers west of the Appalachian Mountains is the process of cold air damning. Cold air damning occurs when cold air floods down the east side of the mountains because it is stable and too dense to rise up and over. This occurs when high pressure is centered over southern Ontario /Quebec. There is another way to lock in cold air, called a Midwest extension. In KY and TN be on the lookout for where the high pressure is set up. This will give you a heads up as to whether or not you will be disappointed.
HOW ABOUT SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
AWESOME FORECAST. I AM FROM THE COAL FIELDS OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. WHAT IS YOUR OPINION FOR MY AREA. GIVEN THE WEAK EL NINO AND EXPECTED BLOCKING, SOUNDS LIKE WE STAND A DECENT CHANCE OF BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SOME THUMPING NOREASTERS. WHAT DO YOU THINK?
Thank you!
I like Virginia’s chances, especially the further you are from the coast. I still think the coastal area’s see more snow than normal but cold air pouring down the Appalachian Mountains will lock in cold air for both NE TN and the western parts of VA. In general (as of now) the bulk of the snowfall should occur early in the snow season which is December and early January. It wouldn’t surprise me if you see a 6 + inch event in northeast TN and a 10 + inch event in Virginia. Thank you for reading!
How do you think it will be in northeast Tennessee this winter?
Hello, thank you for making this as plain as can be. Considereing I no nothing about the science of weather. I’m in Virginia. Seems to look promising for us.:) Can you tell now when thing will get cooler for us this autumn? Thanks!
It is important to note that even if one is in the red area, it does mean they see temperatures like last winter. It also does not mean there will be no snow, just below average snowfall.
Thank you! Hopefully we’ll get more snow than last year! It was 60 and brown on Christmas! I love the snow! Give me -20 and a blizzard over 90 degrees any day!
Minnesota is a tough call. If the jet streams do phase along the east coast that will mean energy is streaming southeast likely in the form of Alberta Clippers. It will depend on where the northern jet sets up. However, MN looks to have a much better winter than last year (if you love snow!)
What do you think about Minnesota? We didn’t get any snow last year, and it was very depressing. It doesn’t look good, but a girl can dream, can’t she?