How likely is a tornado for your area? Here’s a video explanation…
Patrick Marsh is at it again with another great set of videos showing the climatological probabilities of significant severe weather events through the entire calendar year across the entire conus! The video above is for all possible significant severe weather events throughout the calendar year. The graphics show the probability averaged out over time for severe weather in a given area. So basically you see the average over 20 years played out daily. While it’s not an indication storms will occur on any given date, it does show when they’re more likely to happen historically!
You see the threat moves from Dixie in the early part of the year north and west to the central/Northern plains by summer before returning south! [Playing with Data]
This graphical video shows the daily probability of a tornado in the CONUS. Once again you see a familiar pattern of the reports starting in Dixie Alley and moving NW before returning south by the end of the Season. Two peaks occur in Dixie Alley and Oklahoma — making them the ‘capitals’ of tornado formation. Oklahoma has the most active bulls eye in central to the eastern part of the state.
You see a familiar pattern in the significant tornado (EF2+) probabilities with Oklahoma at the heart of tornado activity in the country. The significant tornado season seems to peak in the middle of May before slowly waning into July.
Interestingly enough, significant hail follows a different trend but still familiar — which the area most likely to see significant 2″+ hail being off of the caprock and into Western Oklahoma.
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