Timing: 3 p.m. to 10 p.m. 

Location: Oklahoma into North Texas or Northern Iowa

Impacts: Big, big hail. Damaging winds. Maybe a tornado or two.

Morning soundings from the region show rich moisture coming northwards.

Forecast Discussion

Today should be a hail of a day.

It’s the first day with lots of moisture across the region, so the big cape and shear should combine for some big ice rocks falling out of the sky later today. A cold front will be diving south today with a line of storms quickly forming along it across northern Oklahoma and adjacent KS/TX. Hail and damaging winds are the main threats with these.

Southwards along a dryline looks more promising for supercells. However, stronger capping sampled on 12z soundings here will make storm development more uncertain. Perhaps just as bad for chasers, veer-back-veer wind profiles have been present on and off again on model soundings — which could lead to lowered tornado potential in this region even if a storm does form. Alternatively, northern Iowa also looks relatively robust with an attendant tornado threat up that way as well, but its out of reach for any of us today.

Tornado potential is there despite the negatives on the dryline, but there are numerous ways it could be tempered. Easily a chase day today, but not the easiest one to target for.