Timing: 4 p.m. to 10 p.m.

Location: Northern Kansas into Southern Nebraska

Impacts: Potentially a supercell or two with large hail the primary threat.

April 10, 2019 SPC Severe Risk

April 10, 2019 SPC Severe Risk

Forecast Discussion

The good news and bad news is the forecast for location and timing of storms seems pretty narrow in terms of geographic location and time range. So that’s out of the window in terms of consideration.
This has been an interesting setup to watch develop. The moisture never looked like it was going to be there for a bigger event and that still is the case. But the combination of brute strength forcing by the upper system along with frontal convergence will probably still get a storm or two going in the NE/KS border region. Hail looks like the primary threat — and it looks at least reasonably likely storms will cross the front and move into the cold air and become elevated with time today.
Tornado threat looks lower end, but with a triple point and such strong dynamics it would be unsurprising to see a picture of a cone later today forming as a supercell interacts with the rich low level vorticity environment. Chase wise, it’s a pretty easy target today overall so look for a couple of us to be out and about on this one later today.
As always, our Twitter is the best place to get the latest updates on our live chasing.