Timing: Now into the Overnight

Location: Southern Texas east through Louisiana into Mississippi

Impacts: Tornadoes (perhaps strong), large hail, damaging winds. Flash flooding.

HRRR simulated radar, April 13, 2019.

HRRR simulated radar, April 13, 2019.

Forecast Discussion

Well here we go.
Today looks like every ingredient is in place and the only question is how many storms do we get. Too many storms in too small of a space tends to temper severe weather somewhat and its the only thing I can think of that’s a limiting factor for today’s severe event.
Short of that, expect discrete to semi-discrete supercells to form through today with a threat of strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. Eventually, a line will take shape in the evening — but that will be of no solace to everyone who experiences tornado impacts earlier in the day. Today seems pretty locked in for a big tornado event with the only caveat that messy storm modes have tempered big looking days before in Dixie.
Chase wise, today looks like a tough chase in every way. The terrain is horrible for chasing with thick forests. The cloud bases look to be ground scraping which only accentuates the terrain issues. Worse, storm motions will be fast and storm modes will tend to be HP. This isn’t a chase for the faint of heart. Brandon Sullivan will be out in the jungles attempting a view with other chasers. Keep an eye on our Twitter for updates throughout the day.